By William Tucker
According to reports emerging from Yemen over the last few days the Gulf Cooperation Council has brokered an agreement with President Saleh’s General People’s Congress party that would have the President step down in the next 30 days. Once the President steps down, executive power would then be transferred to the Vice President for two months followed by elections. Although President Saleh has accepted the transfer plan he left himself some wiggle room by suggesting that any transfer of power must take place within a constitutional framework. In other words, a loophole to the agreement could be found if needed, but in the meantime Saleh has managed to get an agreement that would have him leave power with full immunity for both him and members of his administration.
About a month ago I wrote this about the situation in Yemen, “At this point it appears as if his regime cannot be saved and Saleh will be doing everything possible to protect his personal interests in preparation for his departure. This is not an easy task for the parties involved in the negotiations as Saleh will want to prevent being tried by any new regime. Essentially, he will want immunity. Another issue that may be delaying his departure is the inconsistency of the opposition. Saleh has been in negotiations with different parties, all of which are typically called the opposition in the press, meaning he may get guarantees from one party while another rejects the outcome. The President won’t make a deal unless it is accepted by all opposition parties – he would be foolish to do otherwise.”
In the past week this analysis from March has certainly come to the forefront. The GCC agreement extends immunity to Saleh, which is what he has been seeking, but not all opposition parties have agreed to the deal. Reuters has just reported that the largest opposition bloc has tentatively accepted the deal which means that although a way forward has been established a lot can still go wrong in next 30 days.
Perhaps the most pressing issue for most observers is the broken promises Saleh has made in the past when it came to relinquishing his grip on power. In the past Saleh still had command of the armed forces and was not dealing with the type of mass uprising and loyalist defections that are prevalent today. At the present the military has split and those that have defected have an agenda that is separate from the civilian protesters. This creates a volatile environment in which each party will pursue its agenda regardless of any agreement if their interests are threatened. What is certain at this point is the next 30 days are going to be incredibly tense for Yemen and its neighbors.
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