In late September, Kosovo found itself mired in yet another bout of interethnic violence when Serbian gunmen seized and occupied a monastery on the Kosovo-Serbian border, according to Reuters. Kosovar special police engaged with the gunmen, leading to the death of four civilians and one police officer.
As is typical in the Balkans, Kosovo and Serbia exchanged accusations. Each blamed the other for the violence until Milan Radoičić, the deputy head of the Serbian List party located in Northern Kosovo, took responsibility for the escalation and his participation in the monastery attack.
Related: 6 New Countries Joining BRICS Show a Changing World Order
Serbia and Kosovo Tensions Remain Despite Peacemaking Efforts
Serbia and Kosovo have signed several agreements aimed at normalizing relations, but neither side has fully implemented the provisions of the agreements. In Moldova, former Defense Minister Anatol Șalaru publicly stated that Moldova should move to seize the breakaway republic of Transnistria by force, according to the Jamestown Foundation.
Șalaru argues that since Russia did not come to the aid of Armenia over the recent conflict in the Caucasus, then Moscow will likewise be unable to assist Transnistria if Moldova used force to seize the region. It doesn’t seem that Moldova’s government is currently inclined to use force, but the comments rattled Moscow.
Small, breakaway nations are at the mercy of larger powers for their existence, whether that power is a patron or adversary. As Armenia recently discovered, that patron may not show up in your hour of need.
Azerbaijan’s recent military action against Nagorno-Karabakh has earned plenty of condemnation, but the region has long been the center of conflict with Armenia, making the recent military action unsurprising. While Armenia relied heavily on Russia to maintain the status quo, Azerbaijan grew its economy and modernized its military while its neighbor stood still.
Once Moscow was sufficiently distracted, Baku took the initiative and seized Nagorno-Karabakh, forcing ethnic Armenians to flee to Armenia. Other nations with regional disputes are similarly assessing their situations and considering whether to take similar actions to settle long-simmering border disputes betting that Russia – or the West – either cannot or will not come to maintain the status quo.
Unlike Transnistria, Kosovo’s independence has some international recognition, but from Serbia’s perspective, the issue is hardly settled. With this latest conflict between the two longtime belligerents, Kosovo found itself under equal criticism with Serbia from the EU and NATO.
According to AP News, NATO authorized the additional deployment of 200 peacekeepers from the UK to help stabilize the situation in northern Kosovo. But the Kosovar government in Pristina cannot continue to use the presence of peacekeepers as cover for provocative political decisions.
Naturally, Serbia is no less guilty in supporting the ethnic Serbs in Kosovo who challenge the government in Pristina. Nobody wants to see another war in the Balkans. But with a large-scale war in Ukraine occupying NATO’s attention, Serbia could decide to test government resolve in Brussels or Washington.
Related: State of Play in Central Asia
Moldova Would Experience Problems Taking Over Transnistria
Moldova has tried to solve the Transnistria issue since the dissolution of the Soviet Union, but despite its promise to remove Russian troops from the region, Moscow has not followed through. Transnistria is a Soviet throwback in terms of governance and the economic disparity with Moldova is striking, especially since Moldova is the second poorest nation in Europe.
The Moldavan government in Chișinău may want to have Transnistria reintegrated to bolster its drive towards EU membership. However, Moldova’s ability to retake Transnistria by force is doubtful, despite the acquisition of some Western weapon systems.
Additionally, Moscow took the recent remarks made by the former Defense Minister rather seriously. Although Russia is busy in neighboring Ukraine, Russia can draw upon a large contingent of pro-Russian Moldovans to help disrupt any designs on Transnistria.
There are two considerations, however. First, Transnistria may engage in provocative actions and force Moldova to respond. While this action would undermine Moscow and likely provoke some NATO assistance, the people of Transnistria may think themselves short of options now that the conversation has begun.
Second, Romania may decide to become involved. Moldova and Romania have been discussing reintegration for decades, so Bucharest has a keen interest in resolving the Transnistria situation and would likely offer military support in the event of hostilities between Moldova and Transnistria.
Either way you analyze this situation, it’s clear that the post-Cold War borders that were claimed to be permanent are in flux. With a distracted Russia, opportunities to resolve some long-simmering issues are a distinct possibility.
Comments are closed.