In late October, a Chinese Coast Guard vessel collided with a Filipino resupply vessel heading towards the Second Thomas Shoal, a disputed island in the South China Sea. Previously, China has used water cannons and lasers to prevent the resupply of Filipino soldiers on the island. Now, China is apparently using more aggressive measures to disrupt the efforts of the Philippines in maintaining control of the disputed territory.
The more recent collision prompted U.S. President Joe Biden to reaffirm the U.S. commitment to the Philippines via a mutual defense treaty that has been in effect since 1951, according to the BBC. The U.S., too, has been targeted by unsafe actions taken by China, leading the Department of Defense to declassify photos and video of the encounters.
US Pacific Fleet Commander Comments on China’s Aggression
At this year’s Indo-Pacific conference held in Australia, Admiral Samuel Paparo, Commander of the U.S. Pacific Fleet, stated that he believes that these aggressive actions by the Chinese military are directed by Beijing “to create tense, uncomfortable situations in the hope that U.S. and partner forces will vacate the space that every force has a right to be in,” according to Breaking Defense. While much of the attention related to Chinese military activities revolves around Taiwan, the Philippines, too, is well within China’s sights.
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China Would Be Vulnerable If a Blockade Went Into Effect
China’s coastline is boxed in by numerous island nations that make China vulnerable to a blockade. China is largely an export economy, and a blockade would have considerable impact.
What’s worse for China is a blockade could not only prevent ships from going out of the South China Sea and the East China Sea, but it could also disrupt incoming shipping carrying oil, food, and raw materials. Though a blockade would be difficult to fully enforce, any disruption to shipping along normal shipping lanes would be disastrous.
Beijing fully understands this vulnerability. Chinese leaders have sought to rectify the problem, and China’s political and economic powers have grown and allowed it to expand and modernize its military. Though China’s navy has also grown as a result, Beijing still has not been able to extend its control over the entire area comprised of the South and East China Seas, not to mention seizing and reintegrating Taiwan.
Standing in opposition and acting as a check to Chinese ambitions are Japan, South Korea, the Philippines, and Australia. Each of these regional powers has a defense treaty with the U.S. For China to make any sort of headway in its ambitions, it must either politically turn these nations away from the U.S. and into Chinese allies. The other option for China is move quickly enough to seize territory before the U.S. and its allies can respond.
China has expanded its navy, coast guard and fishing militias to the point that it can maintain wide coverage of the waters off its coast, but that is still a lot of water. Launching an invasion force sufficient in size to seize Taiwan would lend itself to detection and potential intervention.
The same goes for much of the Philippines unless China decides to target one disputed island at a time in hopes of preventing a U.S. response. Naturally, any response from Washington is at the center of Chinese planning and behavior in this area.
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The Factors Affecting China’s Activities in the South China Sea and Other Areas
For the most part, uncertainty about how the U.S. would respond to any Chinese action in the South China Sea and East China Sea has arrested Chinese activities. But with Chinese military modernization and growth, Beijing is feeling more confident about its abilities, but not to the point of seizing Taiwan or numerous islands of the Philippines.
These is something worth considering that may eventually change China’s view of playing within the status quo: time. China is facing an economy with significant problems and imbalances.
Also, China is staring down a demographic crisis. A rapidly declining birth rate in China threatens to have economic consequences, according to Voice of America News.
Beijing may want to wait another decade to better grow its military capabilities before attempting to retake Taiwan or portions of the Philippines, but the economic and demographic issues will continue to decline during that period. Some form of action will become more likely in the future.
From Washington’s perspective, losing the Philippines or Taiwan to China would make defending the Pacific more difficult though not impossible. Since the end of the Spanish-American War, the U.S. has been adamant about preventing any Eurasian power from building a competing navy that could threaten the U.S. hold on the Atlantic and Pacific Oceans and ultimately threaten the Eastern or Western coastlines.
The Japanese attack on Pearl Harbor in 1941 solidified this American fear and it has influenced U.S. naval policy ever since, but control of these oceans isn’t enough. The U.S. approach has long been to do what it can to keep Eurasian powers land-bound and preventing the rise of any competing naval power in the first place.
China and the U.S. may have functional relations that allow for dialogue. But their mutual animosity stems from actions as opposed to verbal threats or reassurances.
China fears that the U.S. and other allied navies could form a blockade. The U.S. fears that China would eventually push Americans out of the western Pacific and threaten U.S. territories, Hawaii, or the West Coast.
So far, these fears concerning China and the U.S. are intractable. As a result, the military buildup in the South China Sea and other areas of the western Pacific – along with the associated risks – will continue.
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