By Brett Daniel Shehadey
Special Contributor for In Homeland Security
Are China and Vietnam already at war?
The conflict between Beijing and Hanoi has been hotter than many other states, after the China-Japan feud, of course. While the two countries are at each other’s throats over disputed territories, it must not be forgotten that China is already “at war” politically with much of South China Sea neighbors. Since war can only be political, the war is of a cold versus hot variety; nevertheless it still exists and makes sense to see it as such.
So even though People’s Republic of China (PRC) is not in a hot war presently, the Cold War context in the Pacific has begun. Moreover, it has evolved much from the previous variant of the historic Cold War with the Soviet Union and the PRC from a global to a regional character. Ironically, however, Moscow and Beijing are moving closer and stalemate territorial possessions are ripe in the air as Europe tightens up the East-West division polarized around Ukraine and the U.S. partners with Japan and company in the Pacific theater.
China or one of the little guys could easily snap at some point—an outcome that has analysts pinned to the board and scratching heads as to just what the trigger might be or what the conditions or even the threshold of such a negative scenario.
One difficult problem was in the interpretation of Chinese strategic flexibility and tactical diversity. They were patient and strategic. They had many tactical options. But this is changing as well. Their strategic flexibility is present but accelerated. China and the rest of the South China bunch are becoming impatient and the smallest and dumbest of triggers could drag the region and the world into war over something as stupid as zero-sum gains and strict nationalism.
Where does that leave the USA? The U.S. has repeated in part officially and tacitly it is unofficially understood that Washington supports everyone in the region but China in any disputes that may arise. But when small events, like the destruction of a Chinese oil rig can lead to big and costly wars and senseless deaths.
At present, it is reported by The Telegraph that 80 Chinese ships are protecting an oil rig that China recently installed early this month and two of the ships are the PLA Navy’s largest.
Riots ensued from anti-Chinese protests all over Vietnam. China is sending ships to ‘evacuate’ 3,000 of its citizens or those that want to flee persecution. Chinese factories were burned. Two Chinese nationals have been killed and one hundred have been reported injured in anti-Chinese riots, according to CNN.
Vietnamese anti-Chinese violence will unlikely go unpunished by Beijing. The Chinese public will not allow its leadership to do nothing.
Like Beijing, anti-state rallies are illegal but sometimes allowed to target a particular state actor that they deem a political enemy or for retaliation against a state. China has allowed many anti-Japanese rallies over the nationalization of the Diaoyu, or now, Senkaku Islands.
China has demanded from Hanoi that the criminals be dealt with but as the violence can be techanically traced back to the leadership, it is a difficult way out of settlement for the Vietnamese on the issue.
Minister of Public Security Tran Dai Quang expressed his regrets but said that some police were injured trying to control the public unrest too. Still, that is like not taking the blame for setting a small fire that turned into a brush fire. Obviously, the state of Vietnam remains unapologetic to the state of China.
Some Chinese ships rammed the Vietnamese vessels and fired water cannons on them. The Vietnamese have done the same and hostility is not one-sided. Importantly, there is no “good-guy” here but there is a big-state and a little state with many allies, including the U.S.. Vietnam has sent warships in response to meet Chinese ships.
In another scenario, China does not take the chance of a big war, it simply responds, much like Russia, in a tit-for-tat retaliation while at the same time provoking and stirring conflicts through multiple channels of intelligence, criminal networks, industry, diplomacy and small-scale military operations under a guise of legitimacy. But they have too many tricks they can use to get what they want over time.
Just last week the top brass of both Beijing and Washington armed forces did another show and tell visit swop of the Lioaning and a U.S. aircraft carrier. Secretary of Defense Chuck Hagel was reported as being the first foreigner invited aboard. While the drilling was scheduled before, so was the tour and such a visit in the minds of the Chinese was used to further legitimize actions and bypass US maritime containment.
Mixed signals? The China containment has already been breached two years after the American Asia Pivot. China now has a trotted path which to plow, but not one without risks. The U.S. has already contained and then condemned Chinese oil rig in Vietnamese-Chinese disputed territorial waters. While the aircraft carrier might be labeled ‘junk’ by some, what was more important to the Chinese was the official US visit, taken as a sign that the U.S. is not totally against them.
After the April 7 tour of China and the second trip this last week this May, China was likely emboldened to make its move in the Parcel Islands. Four days ago, Chinese General Fang Fenghui toured a U.S. aircraft carrier after the oil drilling had begun. Obviously, the U.S. is not going to host the PLA Navy chief and at the same time engage them in the waters.
The military diplomacy between the U.S. and China in the form of exchange visits and slight transparency may be cooling China’s military aggression or at least providing a positive peer-to-peer connections much needed. What they are not doing is cooling the political hostilities and exchanges in the region. That is not something that the DoD typically does. This is what the State Department and Chinese Foreign Ministry are theoretically supposed to be doing and in coordination with neighbor states but such efforts have fallen short.
Why not let the communists handle their own affairs? China will take what it wants anyway and the U.S. is not going to physically stop them. Unfortunately, that is a perception building in China and for US allies. All they received so far has been a slap of criticism from the U.S.. But now Vietnam’s out of control. So far, they are targeting civilians inciting violence in the people as political instruments of national policy.
China’s decision to drill in the disputed Parcels is what caused this rekindled animosity in Vietnam and Hanoi’s sanction of public unrest; the fiercest since the Chinese designated a Sansha a prefecture city of Hainan Province in 2012 that would oversee the much disputed islands in the Parcels between China and Vietnam. That same year it was claimed in Vietnam that the Chinese sabotaged two of their oil exploration efforts (unverified claim). Hence, began massive anti-Chinese sentiment.
While China could not very easily push around Japan but simply clash together, they have apparently decided to through their weight to their South China Seas. This also took place with the touting of their aircraft carrier Liaoning, among other maritime exercises. China needs oil. It will pursue such a vital national interest it lacks by more aggressive means, strictly political or otherwise, as it becomes more and more a vital resource for survival, security and growth. The situation between Beijing and Hanoi might blow over but it is incidents like these that are adding up for either more bangs or a big explosion. Another outstanding question is, will they take us there with them?
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