By William Tucker
When the Soviet Union fell apart many nations that had not known independence in over a century were forced to create political and economic systems without a connection to Moscow. The areas that suffered the most were the Caucasus and Central Asia due to the redrawing of borders under the reign of Josef Stalin. Stalin’s purpose was to mix ethno linguistic groups thus preventing any one group from becoming too powerful and causing trouble, but without the power of the red army maintaining stability an outbreak of war in several regions was inevitable. The wars of mid 1990’s that occurred in Georgia, Azerbaijan and Armenia are a prime example of this.
In recent years Turkey and Armenia have been engaged in normalization talks, but this move has made Azerbaijan nervous. The struggle between Armenia and Azerbaijan began shortly after ethnic Armenians in the autonomous oblast of Nagorno-Karabakh passed legislation declaring their intention to unite with Armenia. The government in Yerevan pledged their assistance to Nagorno-Karabakh and a wider war between Armenia and Azerbaijan began. Although the war was ended via a cease fire brokered by Russia in 1994 the dispute was never settled.
Lately Azerbaijan has focused on upgrading their military and is threatening war to settle the Nagorno-Karabakh issue, but Russia and Turkey will do everything they can to prevent another conflict. The Caucasus is a sensitive area for Russia specifically and has been used as a lever to cause problems for Moscow in the past. With Russia pushing back against western interests in several areas it is not a stretch to expect the same to happen again. In any case activities in the Caucasus bear closer scrutiny.
Map credit: U.S. State Department
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