By Dr. Stephen Schwalbe
Program Director, Political Science at American Public University
Kim Jong-un is the dynastic president of North Korea, following in the footsteps of his father, Kim, Jong-Il and his grandfather, Kim, Il-sung. Although educated in Switzerland, he retains similar leadership characteristics of his lineage. He wants to be unpredictable, craves world attention and wants legitimacy. And, he relishes being a 21st century cult-of-personality, first demonstrated by Josef Stalin in the mid-20th century in the Soviet Union.
Evidence of his military unpredictability includes an artillery attack on a South Korean fishing village, the sinking of a South Korean Navy Corvette, numerous missile launches, cyber attacks against South Korean banks, and three nuclear weapon tests (despite protests from China) since he assumed power in December 2011. On the domestic front, Kim, Jong-un has replaced or purged close to half of all officials that served his father, to include Kim, Kyok-sik (minister of the armed forces), Jang, Song-thaek (Kim’s uncle), and Vice Marshal Choe, Ryng-hae.
As for the world’s attention, Kim Jong-un’s military actions caused the U.S. and U.N. to react with more economic sanctions. However, it appears Kim has initiated a new twist in his public relations campaign–wooing celebrities, such as Dennis Rodman. Rodman is a former all-star basketball player who led the National Basketball Association in rebounds per game for a record seven consecutive years, and won five championships with various teams. As such, Rodman is well-known in the United States and internationally. Seeing an easy mark, Kim decided to publicize his affection for American basketball by inviting Rodman to visit him in North Korea on multiple occasions. Rodman now claims that he and Kim are “best friends for life.” Consequently, the world media covered every one of Rodman’s visits to North Korea, giving Kim the attention he craves.
As for legitimacy, North Korea insists on dealing directly with other countries in the world except South Korea. Still existing in a suspended civil war, North Korea does not recognize South Korea as an independent nation. Any agreements, negotiations, or recognition from outside the Korean Peninsula only enhances North Korea and Kim’s legitimacy. The most recent action that contributed to the needed legitimacy was the conferral of an honorary doctorate degree in economics to Kim, Jong-un by a Malaysian university in October 2013.
Korean analysts around the world recommend that the U.S. continue to contain Kim and North Korea, maintaining a united front against him. However, that did not deter his father or grandfather, nor is it likely to deter Kim from future unpredictable actions–perhaps to the detriment of South Korea or Japan. There is nothing any country can do militarily against North Korea due to the extremely vulnerable position of Seoul, the capital of South Korea, with more than 12 million inhabitants. As for economic sanctions, the U.S. and U.N. have levied many sanctions and more would likely do little to affect North Korean policies.
North Korea is dependent on China for almost everything. This symbiotic relationship benefits China in that it can have North Korea initiate provocations when China’s interests are threatened (e.g., in Taiwan or the South China Sea). These actions allegedly are directed by China, which would be amenable to calling them off if the West accedes to its desires. China can inspire Kim to begin a provocative action in response to an action the U.S. or its Asian-Pacific allies take that offends China. The world recognizes China’s considerable influence in North Korea and has pressured it to clamp down on the current and past president Kim’s, generally to no avail.
Perhaps we should try a new approach that may have some usefulness: disregard Kim Jong-un and North Korea. This means no further contact with Kim or North Korean officials which may bring legitimacy to North Korea. The Six-Party Talks regarding North Korea’s nuclear weapons program that started in 2003 should be terminated. If North Korea tests a nuclear weapon, then it is up to China to deal with it. If China decides not to handle it, then it creates a risk that either Japan or South Korea (or both) would develop and field their own nuclear weapon force; something China absolutely does not want to see for historical reasons. If North Korea launches an intercontinental missile, South Korea and/or Japan could make it known in advance that such a launch would be perceived as a military threat to their respective countries. As such, either or both would use future North Korean ballistic missile launches to test their ballistic missile defense systems.
Finally, do not allow famous entertainers from any medium to visit Kim, Jong-un. In other words, take away any attention Kim, Jong-un receives in order to keep him from provoking the international community.
Some would say this might cause North Korea to become even more bellicose to the point of launching a military attack against South Korea. However, this is highly unlikely to happen. To begin, the South Korean military is far superior to North Korea’s military in almost every aspect. It would be analogous to the North Korean basketball team playing the NBA championship team and Kim, Jong-un knows this.
As well, China has everything to lose in such a scenario. South Korea is one of its top trading partners. China also has significant trade agreements with most countries in the Asia-Pacific region, particularly the United States. All of this would be adversely affected, which probably would cause China’s economy to collapse. That could lead to domestic problems, which could threaten the viability of the Chinese Communist Party. Even such a possibility would be unacceptable to the current Chinese leaders.
So, what is the harm in trying a new approach given that everything up until now has proved ineffective?
About the Author
Dr. Schwalbe, Program Director of Political Science at American Public University, retired from the Air Force in 2007 as a colonel after 30 years of active duty service. He has a Bachelor of Science degree from the Air Force Academy; a Master’s degree in Public Administration from Golden Gate University; a Master’s degree from the Naval Postgraduate School; a Master’s degree from the Naval War College; and, a PhD from Auburn University in Public Policy.
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