By William Tucker
Contributor, In Homeland Security
In what quickly became the news story of Tuesday, Turkish F-16’s shot down a Russian Sukhoi Su-24 that was engaged in military operations in Syria.
According to the Turkish government and later reaffirmed by NATO, the Russian aircraft had entered Turkey’s airspace for several seconds before it was shot down on orders from the Turkish Prime Minister Ahmet Davutoglu.
Turkey stated that it warned the Russian aircraft off 10 times in a five-minute period without response as the Sukhoi approached Turkish airspace. To further support Turkey’s version of events, Ankara released the flight path of the Russian aircraft. Naturally, Russia has denied the Turkish version with Russian President Vladimir Putin quickly calling the engagement a “stab in the back” and then accusing Ankara of supporting terrorism. Making matters worse, a Russian helicopter was shot down by rebels allegedly using a U.S. supplied TOW missile while carrying out a rescue of the downed pilots. One Russian soldier died in that engagement.
Russian aircraft have carried out several incursions of Turkish airspace since Moscow committed aircraft to the war in Syria, and there have been other incursions from Russia proper in the last few years. Indeed, other NATO member states have been subjected to the same Russian overflights and other territorial transgressions. These continued incursions allow Russia to test NATO readiness and willingness to engage Russian aircraft. This is the first time in over 50 years that a NATO member has shot down a Russian aircraft for airspace violations, however, as aircraft are typically intercepted and escorted to international airspace.
Turkey has repeatedly warned Russia that these incursions were unacceptable, but Moscow has persisted anyways because the risk has always been low, yet this time the Russian aircraft entered Turkish airspace from a war zone and was conducting operations in an area of Syria that is largely populated by Turkmen – an area that Russia has been bombing and, as a result, killed many Turkmen civilians. Furthermore, Turkey had warned Moscow just last week that the targeting of ethnic Turkmen, who Ankara is intent on protecting, is simply intolerable. It’s conceivable that Turkey’s response to the airspace incursion was motivated by other factors other than defending one’s territory.
Turkey’s response is certainly interesting. Consider that the Russian aircraft was engaged via radio for 5 minutes and only in Turkish airspace for a few seconds and yet PM Davutoglu managed to issue an order to down the aircraft. Though it is possible that the Turkish Air Force was operating under a standing order, it is also worth noting that Turkey had compiled evidence to support its actions and release it publically so quickly. This isn’t to suggest that the targeting of this aircraft in particular was premeditated, but it certainly appears that Turkey suspected that an incursion, whether deliberate or not, would happen in the near future. Ankara may have simply used the incursion as an excuse to push back against Moscow for a string of aggressive actions.
Vladimir Putin certainly wasn’t happy about the incident as one would expect, but his response thus far to the engagement doesn’t suggest any military escalation. Moscow has dispatched a guided missile cruiser to the Mediterranean Sea just off the coast of Syria with orders to destroy any target posing danger. Putin has also suspended military contact with Turkey and imposed several economic measures designed to punish Ankara. These reactions are minimal at best, but it’s possible that they could escalate. That said a military escalation is unlikely as Russia must contend with issues in Ukraine, which is heating up again, and the threat of further sanctions by the West.
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