By William Tucker
Contributor, In Homeland Security

It was only two months ago that Russian President Vladimir Putin paid a surprise visit to Syria. His goal was to declare victory over the various forces that have sought to unseat the regime of Bashir al-Assad.

Putin’s visit was a bold move meant to telegraph a military success just before the presidential elections in Russia next month. But Putin’s move was unnecessary; he is an overwhelming favorite to win his fourth term by a large margin.

However, Putin’s victory declaration also had an international message. It told the world that Russia is capable of intervening, even slightly, in matters of self-interest beyond its vast borders.

Putin’s Power in Middle East Region Threatened by Other Nations

Putin’s power in the Middle East is in danger of unraveling. Two weeks ago, Syrian loyalists backed by Russian contractors crossed the Euphrates River and attacked a U.S.-backed Kurdish force, despite an agreement between Washington and Moscow not to escalate tensions in the area.

The death toll in the attack has varied widely. Moscow confirmed the death of at least five Russian citizens out of the approximately 100 combatants killed.

A second problem for Putin emerged recently when Turkey invaded northern Syria’s Afrin district to mitigate a perceived threat from Kurdish forces in the area. The Assad regime and some Kurdish groups have agreed to support one another against the Turkish invasion.

Syrian forces entered the Afrin district on February 20, while Turkish aircraft struck targets close to the Syrian military positions. The question that will inevitably cause headaches in the Kremlin is whether Russian air assets in Syria should support Syrian ground forces in Afrin.

Russia and Turkey’s National Interests Clash over Syria

Russia and Turkey have had an uneasy relationship regarding Syria. It is clear that their respective interests are clashing.

Only a few short years ago, a Turkish fighter jet shot down a Russian aircraft that had strayed into Turkish airspace. It is not inconceivable that such an incident could happen again.

If Russia does get involved in Afrin, then Moscow and Ankara might find ways to ease the tension. But battle lines are fluid at the moment and mistakes can happen.

There is also the concern that Assad might undermine Russia’s wishes by independently pursuing Syrian interests.

Russia Claims Its Military Forces Were Not Involved in Eastern Syria Attack

Last year, the Associated Press reported that the Russian military contracting firm Wagner and the Syrian government had reached an agreement that promised Wagner a 25 percent cut of Syrian oil revenue. The recent attack near Deir el-Zour may have been intended to seize a nearby oil facility.

“Media reports said Russian private contractors were part of pro-Syrian government forces that attacked U.S.-backed fighters in the Deir el-Zour province in eastern Syria on Feb. 7 and faced a ferocious U.S. counterattack,” the Associated Press reported last week.

When U.S. officials spoke to their Russian counterparts during the attack, Russia repeatedly stated that its forces were not involved. However, the presence of Wagner contractors proved otherwise. In other words, the assault excluded the conventional Russian military command, even though Wagner is outfitted, fed and sheltered by the Russian military.

There certainly was a financial incentive to seize the oil field, but from a tactical perspective the plan proved to be unnecessary and deadly. Russia’s use of military contractors in Ukraine demonstrated that Moscow likes to use contractors for deniability, but Kremlin command and control over these contractors is problematic.

Putin would have a hard time selling a broader military intervention in Syria using Russian regulars, especially since he has already declared victory. Russia will continue to rely on Wagner to ensure that its gains do not slip away.

If Russia wants to avoid future clashes or accusations of committing war crimes, Moscow must institute measures to better control its contractor forces. In the past, the Soviet Union would sow disinformation by suggesting that its military was inadequate to the task and needed the assistance of its Warsaw Pact allies. But this disinformation came at the beginning of a military campaign, such as its multi-nation invasion of Czechoslovakia in 1968.

Today, Russian disinformation comes after the military campaign to cover up legitimate problems. This certainly indicates that Russia is suffering from some military deficits – primarily command and control issues. A wise adversary will seek to exploit this situation.