By William Tucker
Contributor, In Homeland Security
Russian President Vladimir Putin made a short visit to Syria on December 11 to meet with his Syrian counterpart, Bashir al-Assad. Putin then made a quick stop in Egypt before winding down his jaunt in Turkey. During his three-nation trip, Putin spent time with the three heads of state of those countries to discuss a variety of topics, including economic and defense cooperation.
This trip was made possible by Russia’s intervention in Syria, which played an outsized role in saving the Assad regime and assisting in dismantling the radical Islamic State. Russia is following a long-term strategy in the Middle East that was years in the making. But that strategy has only made headway in the last few years.
Russian Activities in the Middle East Are Nothing New
Russian activities in the Middle East are nothing new; however, they were largely circumscribed by a large U.S. presence in the region. With Washington keen to draw down its military footprint in the region following the rout of the Islamic State, Russia has room to foment its long-term goals in the Middle East.
Although Putin again claimed that Russia would be drawing down its forces in Syria, the reality is that Moscow will keep its forces in the Middle East to preserve its toehold in the Eastern Mediterranean.
But before a permanent stationing of troops becomes effective, Russia must position itself to meet two political goals: make its presence a continued necessity of the host nation and maintain tensions with the United States.
Putin does not want a conflict with the U.S., but he does benefit from the illusion and the ensuing fear that a confrontation is entirely possible. With a dwindling U.S. presence in Syria and Iraq becoming more of a reality, Russia has the opportunity to shape the situation in its favor.
Restructuring Russia’s military components in the region to prevent, or at the least dissuade, the freedom of the U.S. military to operate there is one of the foremost goals that Russia must realize in the near term.
Departure of US Military Forces Leaves a Power Vacuum for Russia to Fill
Moscow has signed an agreement with Syria to use its naval base at Tartus. But there is another agreement in place with Iran that allows Russian forces to use the Iranian military base at Hamedan.
There are still U.S. forces in Iraq and Syria, but Washington will see its political influence begin to wane once military forces leave. However, the U.S. will still maintain a large military presence in and around the Arabian Peninsula that can be deployed quickly. The Saudis will become more reliant on that U.S. force to counter Iranian and Russian influence.
Russia had another incentive for intervening in Syria beyond helping a fellow despot. A short-term goal was the Kremlin’s belief that inserting Russian forces into an area where Western forces were present would make isolating Russia impossible.
Putin likely believed that breaking the Western monopoly on humanitarian intervention and attempting to isolate Russia would lead to the lifting of sanctions, but that did not happen. Russia did accomplish a portion of its long-term goal in Syria, and that may be a more desirable victory.
However, Russia has a problem that it cannot easily correct. The U.S. still maintains military supremacy and can reenter the region at any time after it withdraws its troops. Furthermore, Russia must find a way to negate the threat Turkey presents.
Turkey also has ambitions in the Middle East and Russia will be hard-pressed to thwart Ankara on its own. Moscow will have to rely on its partners in Iran and Syria to keep the Turks at bay.
Also, Russia suffers domestically from an economic malaise and an intractable political apparatus. This means Russia cannot retain its position in the Middle East indefinitely, at least not without some help.
For now, Putin will celebrate his victory and focus on ways to cement Russia’s gains in the region.
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