Prepare Now for an Agricultural Terror Attack in the US

By Patrick McCauley
Alumni, American Military University

Agricultural terrorism, or agroterrorism, is the deliberate introduction of a plant or animal disease into other organisms. According to the Congressional Research Service, the “the object is to generate fear, economic loss, and undermine social stability.”

The main intent of agroterrorism is not to kill livestock or crops; it is a way to cause economic damage, civil unrest, and a loss of confidence in the government. It is also a way to negatively affect the nation’s ability to defend itself at home, as well as its interests overseas. A hostile nation-state or terror group might use potential Courses of Action (CoAs) similar to the ones outlined here as potential tools to exploit weaknesses in the U.S. agricultural industry.

Potential Pathogens and Their Availability

Terrorists could select from a wealth of potential pathogens, invasive species, and chemicals in planning an agroterrorism campaign in the United States. A pathogen is any kind of organism that can cause a disease in a plant or animal. Pathogens usually come in the form of bacteria, viruses, and fungi. Many of these plant and animal pathogens, as well as invasive species, are readily available in areas of the world where the diseases are endemic.

If the agroterror group has support from a hostile country, that country might even readily provide natural specimens of the pathogens. The amount of material necessary to initiate an outbreak of a plant or animal disease does not require a large quantity of pathogens; a few milligrams would be sufficient to initiate multiple outbreaks over a wide geographic area.

Asian Longhorn Beetle Could Kill One Third of US Forests

The Asian Longhorn Beetle (ALB) is a non-native invasive species introduced into the United States during the late 1990s. The economic impact of an ALB endemic could be enormous. The USDA Forest Service estimates that ALB infestations in the United States could destroy 35 percent of our forests, or approximately 1.2 billion trees worth $669 billion.

Wheat Stem Rust Could Devastate Crops and Food Chains

Cereal rusts are among the most harmful plant diseases that affect wheat and other small grain crops. In particular, wheat stem rust “has the capacity to turn a healthy looking crop, only weeks away from harvest, into nothing more than a tangle of black stems and shriveled grains at harvest.”

In D.P. Hodson’s oral presentation, “Putting Ug99 on the map: An update on current and future monitoring,” the wheat stem rust race TTKSK (Ug99), discovered in Uganda during 1998-1999, demonstrated both the high vulnerability of the global wheat crop to various strains of wheat stem rust and the lack of global monitoring systems to detect and track such a threat.

What makes Ug99 a particular danger to a nation’s wheat industry is that it can cause major crop losses. Also, it is virulent against resistance genes that have previously protected wheat against stem rust. A survey of 200,000 wheat varieties in 22 African and Asian countries revealed that only about five to 10 percent of the wheat grown there was considered to be resistant to Ug99. Of particular concern in the US, approximately six strains of wheat are typically grown. Wheat is one of the three top crops grown in the United States, and the annual harvest is valued at $11.1 billion.

Agroterror Threat to Beef and Pork Products: Foot and Mouth Disease

Foot and Mouth Disease (FMD) is one of the most infectious viruses known. There are seven types of FMD, with over 60 sub-types. FMD could easily strike both the beef and pork industries, which are valued at approximately $39.7 billion and $46.8 billion, respectively. This means that immunity to one type of FMD does not protect against the other types. The agroterrorist is also aided by the fact that at present there is only a small stockpile of FMD vaccine.

Cyanide Salt in Cattle’s Water Supply

Agroterrorists could sabotage large feed mills using an extremely wide distribution of a toxic agent in a short period. The result would be severe losses. In March 1970, Alabama members of the Klu Klux Klan used a cyanide salt in the water supply of cattle belonging to black farmers. Approximately 30 head of cattle died.

Organophosphates (OPs) are chemicals with a molecular structure similar to nerve agents. Like nerve agents, they disrupt the enzyme that regulates the neurotransmitter called acetylcholine. In agriculture, OPs are found in common and readily available  insecticides.

Thanks to America’s vast highway system, an agroterror group could easily introduce its pathogens into a number of locations across the country. An agroterror cell could also recruit and coerce unwitting accomplices to assist its campaign. The cell could use the accomplices to gather restricted information, provide access to inaccessible areas, donate equipment and money, and unwittingly spread plant and animal pathogens under false pretenses.

Worst-Case Scenario of Agroterrorism

In a worst-case scenario, an agroterror campaign would have a well-funded, trained, and supported international terror group or nation-state behind it. Several teams of four to six trusted agents could be geographically dispersed to operate independently. An agroterror group in this situation could utilize FMD, Ug99, and ALB – executing its campaign over several states in the Midwest/Great Plains region over a period of three to five years.

Less frightening scenarios involve more modestly funded, trained domestic terror groups that might carry out an agroterror campaign in only one or two states in the Great Plains/Midwest region over a similar period of time. Finally, there is the risk of the lone-wolf agroterrorist who might attack one location and one target.

Based on open-source research and interviews, the following countermeasures are recommended for both enterprise security programs and homeland security:

1. Feed mills should be included in homeland security planning and surveillance.
2. Create a FMD vaccination stockpile now.
3. Veterinarian training that emphasizes foreign animal diseases.
4. Add intelligence collection to focus on the Midwest/Great Plains region, and encourage cooperation and information sharing among state intelligence fusion centers within that region.
5. Maintain both academic and government involvement in Ug99 research with international partners. Maintain or increase funding for future research.
6. Emphasize and educate retailers and agricultural workers of the dangers of various chemicals and the importance of physical security to keep these chemicals away from unauthorized persons.

A well-organized terror group or hostile nation might consider using various pathogens, invasive species and chemicals as part of an agroterror campaign against the United States. Preparedness and countermeasures are vital in facing this potentially deadly problem now and in the future.

About the Author

Patrick McCauley is a 2013 American Military University (AMU) graduate with a master’s degree in intelligence studies. His military service spans more than 18 years, including stints on active-duty and with the Reserves. Patrick is a decorated combat veteran with numerous military awards and personal achievements. His analytical focus is on various strategic security matters.