Brett Daniel Shehadey
Special Contributor for In Homeland Security
Egyptian official: “The emergency law is just for one month and for one objective: fighting terrorism.”
Three most recent important updates in Egypt: 1) Egyptian security forces killed 37 arrested Morsi supporting Islamists on Sunday as they were being taken to prison- they now face torture, detainment and execution at checkpoints; 2) an Egyptian court ruled that former dictator Hosni Mubarak be released by the end of the week; and 3) Muslim extremists are retaliating in the Sinai Peninsula with a recent strike on security personnel, executing 25 police officials.
“Counterterrorism” is escalating into an extermination of all Muslim Brotherhood political activity since the popular and military overthrow of democratically elected President Mohamed Morsi (the Brotherhood’s man). There have been comments where secular Egyptians state that they are glad the Brotherhood is now being persecuted. Yet the latest news about releasing autocrat Hosni Mubarak is just as much a loss for the whole of the state as it is for the Islamists. The military backed government in charge has seen the resignation of key interim government officials and US as well as the international community have denounced political actions of oppression towards the thousands of Morsi supporters in the streets.
The issue at hand is worse than a re-installment of the previous “deep state.” The rulers behind the throne are making an additional effort to eliminate all Muslim Brotherhood opposition both in public and in private. This political zero-sum political climate is also drawing out the most radical components in Egypt, which demonstrate the most success in the Sinai. Yet, violence is reported throughout Egypt as well, including: security atrocities, provocations, crack downs, public secular nationalist to Islamist attacks and reprisals against authorities. The fundamental ideological divide is driven around a show of force without the attempt of any political solution.
Why is the Egyptian government doing this? What is driving them? Possibly foreign interests by key players.
The Muslim Brotherhood membership list certainly has ties to terrorists and extremists. Some of them cross-over at times. Even al Qaeda’s number one, Egyptian born Ayman al-Zawahiri, was a member of the Brotherhood long long ago. But keep in mind this was always the case, even during Morsi’s brief rule, which the army-backed regime allowed. They have not become much if any worse than they were before.
An entombed Hosni Mubarak, who recently suffered a comma and is still in detention, may be released. The Egyptian state media reported this was the ruling of a court. The release of the court decision signifies that the military is threatening a resurrection of past figures rulership, potentially as a warning of further punishment to the Islamists. Alternatively, the issue is a serious matter and not just a bluff to further smash political Islamists. Yet, the intentions are obvious by now- the state wants to wipe them clean from the board which is akin to fascism and tyranny through a one-party state.
By utterly destroying the Brotherhood, labeling them all terrorists and even a transnational movement, they have effectively silenced the strongest critic. Moreover, the release of Mubarak reinforces a one-party rule environment where military abuses are immune from prosecution and any advocacy to democracy will be artificial. Such immunity shields past and present offenses while encouraging future state security political persecution. All of this is being done in the name of the state but it would be difficult to argue that this strategy is really done in the name of the Egyptian people. So if not them, then who?
Two ways to look at this: idealist lens and realist lens: First, the idealist lens is that the American position is to support freedom, human rights and democracy. Second, the US, Israel, the greater part of Egypt, and the regional surrounding governments, do not want another Morsi back in office. They do not even want the possibility of another Morsi back even in parliament. On the other hand, the tactics of the military are deplorable and are not at all sponsored by the international community at large.
Saudi Arabia is a powerful exception. It is pressing the military backed government of Egypt hard to continue this oppressive course, blocking Western diplomacy and humanitarian efforts and offering to substitute any essential international foreign aid losses due to the unsavory anti-Islamist methods.
Riyadh has had similar successes eliminating political movements both violent and passive and religious and otherwise. They are the likeliest foreign culprit leads behind these actions that the West contends. They have even managed to reimburse Egypt for any lost aid or assistance from the US and others.
Why do the Saudis hate the Brotherhood so much? The three big fears: they fear Islamism, they fear democracy, and they fear revolution. To their credit, Islamism did not work out so well. Democracy and revolution appears to be seen.
The salafists of Saudi Arabia are more radical variant than Islamists like the Muslim Brotherhood. The threat to the Saudi Royal family and thus the kingdom is one of appeasing internal orthodox salafists through rewards over social and cultural control. The clerics desire a more strict interpretation of the old ways and customs of the Prophet and the earliest followers. In Saudi Arabia, the situation has long been a power-sharing arrangement with Al ash-Sheikh and the Ministry of Islamic Affairs.
The salafist followers seek to capture the genuine historic “way” of the Prophet which would exclude Western modernity and any form of secular life. Literalist and puritanical sect of Islam. No religious innovations. Think religious police and attended male chaperons for any females in public.
While Islamists can vary greatly, the Muslim Brotherhood in Egypt desires to incorporate the Quran and key orthodox elements of socio-political law, duty and customs with technology and modernity of the West as well as religious innovations that do not contradict the core faith and its advancement. Even their methods often differ, as the Islamists take on a more versatile political approach like democracy and elections, while salafists consider traditional methods and the acceptance of kings that adhere to the religious “ancestors.”
These are wide generalizations but social tolerance, in spite of high corruption and abuse by the Brotherhood officials of Egypt last year, is far greater than anything in Saudi Arabia. The Brotherhood was further pinned by Egypt’s own more radical religious groups, like the salafist al Nour Party, which won about 30 percent of the 2011 national parliament before it was disbanded by the Court.
Nevertheless, the Muslim Brotherhood are an insidious bunch with an approach to infiltration through long endured persecution and they have chosen institutional political control over violence. In the past, before rejecting violent methods, yet under oppression, they resorted to underground movements, charities, organizing events, mosques, education centers, public elections and so forth.
In any case, the Saudi’s have a vested interest in seeing the defeat of the transnational Muslim Brotherhood movement for this reason. They seek to avoid any revolutionary inspiration from the region and including their own salafist communities, whose religious leaders vie for power through a monarchical filter, rather than, and to avoid, an overthrow.
If the Brotherhood is not destroyed, that means a reemergence in the political scene, a potential take-over again and most importantly, they will be encouraged to jump start underground movements in the Arabian Kingdom. Muslim Brotherhood movement in Syria as well, is another lesson to the Saudis in the fear of protests, democracy and Islamist revolution.
There is an overall larger reality going on in the region too:
Israel and the UAE are also attempting to beat down the Western humanitarian efforts while supporting the Egyptian military. Egypt is hot button- as it is the most populace Muslim country in the world (with 85 million). Israeli-Egyptian security ties have never been better.
Israel is presently in a diplomatic row with the US and Europe over their “settlements” and the wall. The US wants a two-state solution and opposed the wall. Europe has threatened to withhold over 80 billion Euros for the Horizon 2020 research grant if Israel continued its settlement programs into Palestinian territories. Israel has responded with threatening to bar all EU activities in Palestine.
A new overall regional analysis and fresh look is needed for the Middle East as it rapidly changes shape.
More of Russia is in port amidst the Syrian Civil War. More of Iran.
Turkey, Egypt and certainly Saudi Arabia are not taking any chances with protestors.
The regional “ally” states are still smiling and gladly accepting US and European monies but the Western World is seeing vastly diminishing returns on their political and strategic investments. These states are tired of the old international arrangement and already we are seeing Saudi Arabia, Turkey, Israel and even Iran taking a greater political involvement than ever before- making power plays that they were not in a position to do just ten years ago.
The concept of a power vacuum is well understood but there is a diplomatic vacuum as well when inconsistency and foreign policy flux. The Saudi sponsorship of radical extremist groups in the Syrian conflict and their willingness to buy out Egypt from the US at a proposed $12 billion will open a larger channel that could eventually severe the chord between Washington and Cairo.
As of today, the US is officially holding back some, but not all, of its military aid to Egypt in response its on-going abuses. NYT reports that Saudi Prince Saud Al-Faisal even “traveled to Europe, where he pushed back against efforts to punish Egypt’s rulers.”
But Washington’s waning regional influence is both a matter of policy (“Lead from Behind”), willingness (fall back on presence and resources) and confusion (What will happen next? What should we do here? What about over there?).
No apparent regional strategy directs US diplomacy in any consistent and coherent way for a strong, perpetual, Western-backed Middle East development. Instead, crises are handled narrowly through case-by-case firefighter operational focus without greater purpose of mission and with scanty enthusiasm. If this continues, King Abdullah bin Abdul Aziz al-Saud, and not US President Barack Hussein Obama, might have the last word in Egypt’s “state of emergency.”
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