By Stephen Schwalbe
Faculty Member, Public Administration at American Military University
On New Year’s Day, North Korean leader Kim Jong-un offered South Korea a so-called restart. Kim proposed to reopen the border hotline between the two countries, which has been dormant since February 2016.
He also proposed to begin negotiations with no pre-conditions this week between high-level officials of North and South Korea in the Demilitarized Zone village at Panmunjom. Those talks, which began today, are the first formal dialogue between the Koreas since December 2015.
Kim agreed to send a delegation of North Korean athletes to the 2018 Winter Olympics, which will take place in PyeongChang, South Korea, from February 9-25. In order to field an Olympic team, Kim’s remarkable overture must have been planned for some time.
The North Korean leader also agreed to hold talks with Seoul to “ease military tensions, in the most significant thaw in relations between the neighboring states in years,” CNN reported.
South Korean President Jae-in Moon accepted the offer for bilateral talks with the blessing of President Trump. Trump tweeted: “…Rocket man now wants to talk to South Korea for first time. Perhaps that is good news, perhaps not – we will see!”
Tensions Continue to Build between North and South Korea
This apparent thaw on the Korean Peninsula comes at the apex of a build-up of tensions there. Within the past year, we have seen North Korea detonate thermonuclear weapons and launch ICBMs capable of reaching the United States. At the same time, South Korea conducted its annual joint war games with the U.S., including U.S. Air Force strategic bombers, nuclear-powered aircraft carriers and submarines.
North Korean ballistic missile launches and nuclear weapons testing unnerve the region and the world (particularly the U.S.). Similarly, the combined U.S.-South Korean annual military exercises unnerve the North Koreans.
After all, the Korean War of the early 1950s ended with just an armistice, known as a ceasefire. But there has never been an actual peace treaty between North and South Korea. As a result, the conflict technically continues, although no shots are fired except now and then in the DMZ.
Permanent Peace on the Korean Peninsula Appears Possible
Given the current U.S. propensity towards isolationism, expecting anything to happen peacefully on the Korean Peninsula from the Trump administration is false hope. During any negotiation, both sides must come to the table willing to sacrifice something.
So far, the U.S. has only demanded that North Korea give up its nuclear weapons and end its ballistic missile launches. North Korea has worked on these programs for decades, using billions of won and immense resources. It is highly unlikely any country in the world, especially North Korea, would be willing to give up such programs under duress.
What has the U.S. offered in return? To end sanctions? Sanctions have had little impact on North Korea given China’s continued support of the Kim regime, despite China’s statements to the contrary.
To provide food and oil? Again, that would have little impact on Pyongyang, given China’s continued surreptitious support. These measures have not been successful in the past, even with agreements concluded between the United States and North Korea.
The best path forward is for the two Koreas to negotiate a peace treaty themselves, formally ending their six-decade war. Every nation – especially China, Russia and Japan – should support this course of action.
A peace treaty could mean an end to the annual war games by the United States and South Korea, satisfying one of the major issues Pyongyang has had with Seoul and Washington. A peace treaty would also lead to the cessation of further North Korean ballistic missile launches and nuclear weapons testing. That would make everyone happy.
If a peace treaty were to happen – and there is no reason why it cannot – then both Kim and Moon might be nominated for the Nobel Peace Prize. Can you imagine that?
About the Author
Dr. Stephen Schwalbe is an associate professor at American Military University. He retired as a Colonel in the U.S. Air Force after 30 years of service including serving as a Defense Attache in South Korea in the mid-1990s.
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