AMU Homeland Security

Establishment versus Populist: Who Will Win the 2016 Presidential Election?

By John Ubaldi
Contributor, In Homeland Security

The selection by Hillary Clinton of Virginia Senator Tim Kaine for vice president virtually assures this election will be the establishment versus the rest of the population to see who will be the next President of the United States.

Some voters were not ecstatic about Kaine’s selection as Clinton’s vice president. Many Liberal groups wanted a more progressive candidate, such as Ohio Senator Sherrod Brown, or even the popular anti-Wall Street antagonist Massachusetts Senator Elizabeth Warren.

Alienation of Sanders Supporters

Many progressives urged Clinton not to choose Kaine. They didn’t like his support of fast-track authority for the White House in order to gain backing for the Trans-Pacific Partnership agreement.

One particularly progressive group, “Democracy for America,” criticized Clinton’s choice over a letter Kaine sent to the Federal Reserve, wanting regulations eased on regional banks. Executive Director Charles Chamberlin stated: “It should be disqualifying for any potential Democratic vice presidential candidate to be part of a lobbyist-driven effort to help banks dodge consumer protection standards and regulations designed to prevent banks from destroying our economy.”

To the left wing, the Rust Belt states and the millions of Bernie Sanders supporters who are staunchly anti-trade and anti-Wall Street, the choice of Kaine has the potential to alienate them even more from voting for Hillary Clinton.

This decision also comes at a time when Wikileaks released nearly 20,000 emails sent or received by the Democratic National Committee. The emails show the DNC’s duplicitous nature and its unimpartial stance in favor of Hillary Clinton during the Democratic primary.

Trump Attacks Clinton’s Vice President Selection

Republican candidate Donald Trump pounced right away at her choice for vice president. Trump depicted Clinton’s choice as another example of the continuation of the rigged political system, attacking Kaine for his support of President Obama and Obama’s disastrous economic policies.

Trump tweeted, “Tim Kaine is, and always has been, owned by the banks. Bernie supporters are outraged, was their last choice. Bernie fought for nothing!” With this selection, the American people now have two Democratic candidates, Clinton and Kaine. Both have spent their entire lives in public service, running against Trump who has spent his entire life outside government.

This election is now being framed as the establishment candidate (Hillary Clinton) versus the populist candidate (Donald Trump), to see who will be the next president of the United States.

The Alienation of the American Electorate

How did we get to a point where American citizens feel alienated from their political candidates?

This situation was decades in the making. It accelerated in the aftermath of the worst financial crisis since the Great Depression.

The American public witnessed massive bailouts of the financial institutions that created the financial crisis in the first place. No one was held accountable, and then the American public watched the banks grow richer, all at the expense of average Americans.

The massive disconnect between American citizens and the 2016 presidential candidates is a reflection of the weakest recovery following a severe downturn in the economy since the Great Depression. The recession officially ended in June of 2009. Since then, unemployment dropped to 4.9% from its peak high of 10%, but most of the jobs being created are part-time. Also, they offer low wages and are centered in the retail and service sectors of the economy.

The American people have seen costs skyrocket from everything to food, fuel and especially healthcare. The Affordable Care Act was supposed to rectify healthcare costs, but the only thing that hasn’t gone up is wages.

President Obama Echoes Misinformation on the U.S. Economy

Just last month, President Obama gave an economic address at Concord Community High School in Elkhart, Indiana. He stated, “America’s economy is not just better than it was eight years ago — it is the strongest, most durable economy in the world.”

What the president failed to mention is that the nation’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in the first quarter of this year grew only 1.8%. The U.S. has not seen yearly GDP over 3% since 2005.

The president even claimed that “we’ve seen the first sustained manufacturing growth since the 1990s.”  This information is misleading, as it all depends on the period used to measure growth.

Fact checkers mentioned that it’s true that U.S. manufacturing employment has rebounded by 7.3 percent since plunging to a post-World War II low in February 2010. But manufacturing employment, at nearly 12.3 million people in May, was still 2.2 percent below where it was when Obama took office. Plus, manufacturing employment remains 10.6 percent below where it was at the start of the Great Recession in December 2007.

It also should be noted that manufacturing has lost 35,000 jobs since the beginning of 2016.

With all the angst over the fate of the U.S. economy, many people on both the left and the right believe the system is rigged in favor of the establishment of both parties.

Trump Preaches Populism at RNC Convention

At the close of his July 2016 acceptance speech at the Republican National Convention, Trump stated to disaffected voters, “I am your voice. So to every parent who dreams for their child, and every child who dreams for their future, I say these words to you tonight: I’m with you, and I will fight for you, and I will win for you.”

Trump gave the classic populist message of “I will fight for you, and we will make America great again.” He has framed this election as the establishment versus the American people.

So far Trump has been devoid of policy details. That doesn’t matter to his voters. He feels their anger. This sentiment is why this 2016 presidential election will be about the establishment candidate versus the populist candidate.

The unfortunate aspect for America is that no matter who wins and assumes the presidency in January 2017, he or she will start off being disliked by over half the country. That is hardly a good way to begin governing a country.

Glynn Cosker is a Managing Editor at AMU Edge. In addition to his background in journalism, corporate writing, web and content development, Glynn served as Vice Consul in the Consular Section of the British Embassy located in Washington, D.C. Glynn is located in New England.

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