By William Tucker
Contributor n Homeland Security
Espionage stories involving Chinese intelligence collection against the U.S. government or private enterprise appear almost on a daily basis. However, the number of individuals involved in intelligence gathering is not regularly cited in the media.
Last week, Bill Gertz, a long-time reporter covering defense – and intelligence-related issues for the Washington Free Beacon, published a story featuring a Chinese dissident with ties to the ruling class of the Communist Party of China. This dissident, Guo Wengui, stated that Beijing had increased the number of spies targeting the U.S. to 25,000.
This is a substantial increase over previous levels of Chinese espionage in the U.S. But considering the nature and breadth of Chinese espionage, the increase makes sense, although it has to be a management nightmare for Beijing to run these agents effectively.
Gertz claims that the increase began in 2012. He also says that Chinese agents have around 15,000 additional recruits for intelligence collection against U.S. targets.
Increase in Espionage against US Means Increased Security Risks for China
China has a number of reasons for targeting the U.S. and much of the developed world so aggressively. But in expanding its espionage efforts, Beijing also increases the number of risks it must take on.
The source of all of this information was Guo, a Chinese billionaire and real estate investor who left China two years ago and now resides in New York. Gertz says his interview with Guo is his first by an American although Guo occasionally releases videos on YouTube to get his story out to the public.
Guo Uses Highly Placed Sources, Now Driven Out of Office by Chinese President
Guo states that his knowledge comes from former Chinese intelligence vice minister Ma Jian and former PLA military intelligence Chief Ji Shengde. Both men were forced from their posts in President Xi Jinping’s anti-corruption drive.
Xi has used his anti-corruption drive to oust anyone who is insufficiently loyal to his rule in the Communist Party. Indeed, Xi recently had Sun Zhengcai, a Communist Party Politburo member and potential successor, arrested.
If the information Guo is providing is accurate, then he could offer significant insight into much of China’s internal struggles and Chinese intelligence operations. There isn’t much of an internal threat to Xi’s rule, yet the president continuously feels compelled to stack the deck with ardent loyalists. China’s long-term problems help explain China’s aggressive approach to economic intelligence collection.
Guo’s Information Should Be Judged Carefully before US Acts
There is a small but important caveat to the accusations raised by Guo Wengui: they are just accusations. From an intelligence perspective, much of what Guo says about the number of espionage agents in the U.S. is likely correct. However, Guo is speaking publicly about these issues for personal as well as nationalist reasons.
Although Guo is not technically a defector, he is speaking like a defector. Defectors can bring important information – and often do – to the U.S., but the enthusiasm for what Guo says must be tempered by his situation.
Guo is speaking out against a government that does not like dissent. To maintain his stay in the U.S. along with his personal wellbeing, Guo has to remain valuable to the U.S. government.
That is why Guo will continue to offer information in the most sensationalist ways possible.U.S. intelligence agencies, if they are truly interested in Guo, will look for other methods of collection and analysis to verify or debunk the information he provides.
As more Chinese speak out against the regime, some of their publicly available information will become increasingly difficult to verify as they seek to protect themselves through sensational disclosures of information.
Comments are closed.