NOAA: 45 percent chance of a near-normal hurricane season
Tomorrow, June 1, marks the official start of the 2016 hurricane season. The Climate Prediction Center of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) stayed true to its name, publishing a series of predictions for the 2016 season.
The Atlantic hurricane season, which runs from June 1 through November 30, should be relatively normal, according to the NOAA. However, formulating reliable predictions for this upcoming season has been especially difficult, the American scientific agency said, as there is a lot of uncertainty in the climate signals that influence the formation of Atlantic storms.
According to the NOAA, there is a 45 percent chance of a near-normal hurricane season here in 2016. There is an approximate 70 percent chance that 10 to 16 named storms will occur between June 1 and November 30. A named storm must have winds of 39 MPH or above. Additionally, a total of 4 to 8 of the named storms could reach hurricane status — winds of 74 MPH or above. And of that group, the NOAA is predicting 1 to 4 major hurricanes.
The National Hurricane Center considers any hurricane that reaches maximum sustained 1-minute surface winds of at least 111 MPH as a “major hurricane.” All category 3, category 4 and category 5 hurricanes are considered to be major hurricanes.
Breaking: Near-normal Atlantic #HurricaneSeason is likely this year – https://t.co/a8AwD7oOis#HurricaneOutlook pic.twitter.com/bYLXEu5qxR
— NOAA (@NOAA) May 27, 2016
30 percent chance of an above-normal hurricane season
The next highest probability (30 percent chance) for 2016 is that the U.S. will experience an above-normal hurricane season. On the flip side, there is a 25 percent chance that a below-normal season will occur.
“This is a more challenging hurricane season outlook than most because it’s difficult to determine whether there will be reinforcing or competing climate influences on tropical storm development. “However, a near-normal prediction for this season suggests we could see more hurricane activity than we’ve seen in the last three years, which were below normal.” — [link url=”http://www.noaa.gov/near-normal-atlantic-hurricane-season-most-likely-year” title=”Gerry Bell”,] Ph.D., lead seasonal hurricane forecaster with NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center
GRAPHIC: Here are the possible names for Atlantic tropical cyclones this year #HurricaneSeason pic.twitter.com/z3gyWpDup0
— NOAA (@NOAA) May 27, 2016
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