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By Brett Daniel Shehadey
Special Contributor for In Homeland Security

Newly elected Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko met with Russian President Vladimir Putin in Normandy, France for 15 minutes at a D-Day Anniversary that sparked a renewal in an effort toward a peaceful resolution.

President Poroshenko won the election with 54 percent of the votes and was inaugurated last Friday. He is looked to as the best man for the job, while still leaning westward, willing to work with Russia through concessions. The legitimacy of his presidency is fresh with national votes, unlike the outgoing Interim President Oleksandr Turchinov, who was hated by Russia and pegged a part of the Ukrainian fascists in Kiev. Even though the eastern region largely abstained from the election, the face-to-face is between Kiev and Russia. The separatists do not have to like him, they want to be free of Kiev.

Other than a new man in office with no perceived strong anti-Russian history, Poroshenko offers support for greater political autonomy, amnesty to separatists that have not killed anyone and safe passage for Russian mercenaries that seek to leave Ukraine. He has also vowed for a united Ukraine and a war against separatists, like his immediate predecessor. He then offers Russia a pretty good deal, plus a potential working relationship in the future, the carrot; or the stick: a continued war against militant Russians in Ukraine and instability on Russia’s border.

Poroshenko adamantly vows to defend Ukraine “no matter what.” Further U.S. and EU economic sanctions could be imposed on Moscow as well if peace cannot be reached between Ukraine and the pro-Russian separatists.

Russia will likely work with Poroshenko only if they believe they have secured the Donetsk and Luhansk provinces well enough from within and can maintain them through a ceasefire and withdrawal of supply lines or support channels. The blanket Ukrainian parliament’s legislation or referendum toward greater eastern autonomy is not one that Moscow can afford to trust at this point.

Steps will have to be made by Poroshenko;s government to assure them that they can still have at least those two provinces. Putin demanded that “the Ukrainian leadership must show its goodwill and wisdom. They have to immediately stop the operation and announce a cease-fire. There is no other way to create the conditions for negotiations.”

Unfortunately, Poroshenko stressed during his inauguration today that he will never accept Crimea under Russia. Crimea was a semi-autonomous republic but part of Ukraine, which was forcibly annexed into Russia with an imposed occupation and referendum. Moreover, Poroshenko appears to be saying and doing the opposite of what Russia expects.

Normandy presented too many parallels and opportunities past or present to miss for the hopeful. From World War II when the U.S. and Russia worked together to defeat the Third Reich to now, post-almost 50 years of Cold War and over a decade of sour peace. Ukraine divides Europe from the U.S. but Normandy may still have some life in her to bring them back together.

Putin has praised Poroshenko’s “positive thinking” on the situation, according to Russia Today. But that was Friday when the two leaders met in private. On Saturday, Poroshenko turned back to his base and rallied for stronger nationalism and a tough stance against the separatists.

A slight normalization of relations might be on the horizon and more valuable to Russia than prolonged violent conflict in east Ukraine. Today, the Russian embassy in Kiev reopens. During the riots and ouster of Pro-Russian President Viktor Yanukovich, the Russian delegation was recalled.

Now Russian Ambassador to Ukraine Mikhail Zurabov attends Petro Poroshenko’s inauguration. Poroshenko is scheduled to meet with the Russians sometime after he is sworn in as president. Recognition of his presidency by Moscow is anticipated soon.

 

By Donald Sassano
In Homeland Security Contributor

Not long after the collapse of the Soviet Union, a splashy new clash-conscious text by Harvard’s Samuel Huntington mocked realism’s all-encompassing statist paradigm. Realists’ laser-like focus on the state as central actor, argued Huntington, could no longer fully account for heightened global instability, including what realists believed to be an emerging security competition between Russia and Ukraine.