By William Tucker

In the next few hours the UN ceasefire to which Syrian President Bashir al-Assad agreed is supposed to be implemented. Following with past forecasts here at IHS, the violence has simply intensified rather than abated. Syrian troops have launched raids into neighboring Lebanon and have fired at civilians refugees across the border in Turkey. Turkey has loudly condemned this latest action, however they have not responded beyond summoning the Syrian ambassador to Ankara. Following suit with the Turkish condemnation, the U.S. called for an immediate end to hostilities, but Washington, too, has not shown that it is willing to take any action beyond rhetoric. Both Turkey and the U.S., not to mention the Saudi’s, have strategic interests in Syria, but they do not seem to be meshing at the moment. Outside of practicality, this may be another hindrance to intervention. Although a military intervention has been discounted on numerous occasions, it is still important to discuss as the UN ceasefire has called for peacekeepers, though none have been pledged.

It should be readily apparent that Assad has no intention of stopping the crackdown and simply agreed to the UN plan as a means to buy time. Thus far, no nation standing in opposition to the actions of the Syrian regime has shown a willingness to take military action, and instead, is relying on sanctions and a ceasefire that cannot be implemented without some sort of peacekeeping force. Evidence of Assad’s play is the presence of his foreign minister in the capital of the Syrian regime’s few remaining allies – Russia. Russia’s interest in maintaining the Syrian regime has been discussed here before; however the increase in violence, coupled with Assad’s intransigence, has pushed Moscow into a corner. Russia is unlikely to give way in the near term, and will likely work to extend the debate over the situation. In short, despite the well intentioned diplomatic efforts nothing is likely to end the violence in Syria unless some form of military intervention takes place. The west currently doesn’t possess the appetite; Turkey however, will have to be watched closely in the coming days and weeks.