By William Tucker

The Arab Spring is often celebrated by reciting the roll call of overthrown autocrats. But revolutions, in the end, will be judged primarily by what they build, not what they destroy. And in this respect, a year of revolution has refashioned exhilaration into paradox. – Henry Kissinger

A paradox, indeed. For years the Sinai peninsula has been left underdeveloped. Some have ascribed this to the peninsula’s demilitarization resulting from the Camp David Accords, but the neglect goes back much further. In fact, not a single initiative proposed by Gamal Nassar was ever fully implemented. It is true that war intervened on several occasions, but that didn’t stop the residents of the Sinai, primarily the Bedouins in this case, from creating organized smuggling rings to support the area financially. In response to the growth of these criminal enterprises, Cairo would divert money for economic development into funding for increased security operations. The animosity between the Sinai and Cairo grew, thus creating a security vacuum. This has been exploited by terrorist groups that were at first domestic in nature, but have now become increasingly international.

Though I have written about militancy in the Sinai here at IHS before, an attack that occurred yesterday will have a more profound regional impact than those of the past few years. Yesterday, multiple terrorists attacked the Kerem Shalom border crossing between Israel and the Sinai killing 16 Egyptian soldiers. The attackers then seized two armored personnel carriers and attempted to cross into Israel, but they were engaged and destroyed by the Israeli Defense Forces. Naturally, Israel stated that Egypt needed to do more to ensure security in the Sinai, considering that Israel had warned Sinai residents of an increase in militant activity on Friday and Egypt failed to respond. In the wake of the attack Cairo has ordered a clearing operation, but the size and scope was not reported. The Sinai is a large piece of real estate, and any operation will take time. Unfortunately, past operations have failed to stop terrorist activity or even dent the criminal economy in the area. Frankly, the situatihasidic considerably more complex than it has been in the recent past and Cairo just didn’t have the incentive to do much beyond the occasional policing of the area. They will have to respond now and this will force Egypt, and its new political dynamic, further into unchartered territory.

The threat of terrorism in the Sinai is one thing, but the political impact the security environment will have is quite another. Egypt’s new President, Mohammed Morsi, an Islamist of the Muslim Brotherhood, must work with the Egyptian military to handle this situation. The military has long ruled Egypt and suppressed the Muslim Brotherhood to protect its interests and its hold on the country. Needless to say, the new President and the military are quite weary of one another. Further complicating matters is the close relationship that Morsi has cultivated with Hamas, another political party/terrorist group that grew out of the Muslim Brotherhood. If these attackers originated in Gaza, as some have stated, the tensions between Morsi and Hamas could increase. Doubly so if the military suspects that the Morsi/Hamas relationship will undermine its interests by complicating the security situation. Complicating matters further is the relationship between Israel and Egypt. Israel has been worried that developments in Egypt could undermine the peace accord. In order to shore up the security of the Sinai, Morsi is going to have to refrain from interfering in the cooperation between Israel and the Egyptian military. Once again, this could put him at odds with other factions of the Muslim Brotherhood including Hamas.

The situation is tense and the security picture in the Sinai is rather opaque. It is clear that a problem exists, but the peninsula is now home to a variety of militant groups in addition to a Bedouin population that is increasingly hostile to Cairo. In essence, there really isn’t a simple solution. Increasing the Egyptian security presence is necessary, but it will likely complicate matters with the indigenous population. Furthermore, the Israeli concern over the future of its relations with Egypt could very well hinge on this issue. Jerusalem is also worried about the situation in Syria which could lead to a similar situation in and around Golan. For years the Israelis have had to deal with a predictable situation in Cairo and Damascus leaving Jerusalem to deal with the Palestinian negotiations and the Iranian threat. Those days are gone and the situation in the Middle East has gone from bad to worse. As Kissinger points out, “revolutions will be judged primarily by what they build, not what they destroy.” We know what’s been destroyed, but what’s being built and by who, is another matter entirely. Unfortunately, the Sinai is just a single flashpoint in an increasingly complicated region.