Russia’s conventional military forces have suffered degradation following Moscow’s invasion of Ukraine. This degradation is partly due to a more spirited defense than Russia anticipated and the logistical support that Ukraine has received from NATO member-states.
Since the readiness of conventional forces plays a prominent role in a nation’s strategic defense, any nation facing shortfalls in conventional means must turn to other elements of state power in pursuit of national interests.
Russia has made threats regarding the potential use of nuclear weapons – or more specifically, tactical nuclear weapons – and various, sometimes vague, threats of action against those nations supporting Ukraine’s fight against the Russian invasion. Vocal threats aside, Russia has engaged in both clandestine and covert measures to undermine NATO member-states and other European states that are former Soviet Bloc, but not yet part of the EU or NATO.
What Is Russia Hoping to Accomplish with Gray Zone Attacks?
With these gray zone attacks, Russia seeks to use the threat of force to intimidate and terrorize Ukraine. Moscow has also actively engaged in assassination, sabotage, misinformation, disinformation, and political destabilization campaigns to undermine Western cohesion with Ukraine.
These gray zone attacks are nothing new. But while most nations can disrupt these activities, there are gaps in policy to dissuade their use in the first place.
During a press conference in Prague, Secretary of State Anthony Blinken stated: “The Kremlin’s also been intensifying its hybrid attacks against frontline states – NATO members – setting fire and sabotaging supply warehouses, disregarding sea borders and demarcations in the Baltics, mounting more and more cyber-attacks, continuing to spread disinformation.
“I can tell you that in the meeting of foreign ministers today, virtually every Ally was seized with this intensification of Russia’s hybrid attacks. We know what they’re up to, and we will respond both individually and collectively as necessary.”
In his comments, Secretary Blinken used the phrase “hybrid attacks” to describe Russian hostile activities. However, the term has fallen out of favor lately, because it is an ill-defined concept.
The current, more popular term is “gray zone,” which is also poorly defined. Nonetheless, there are efforts to better define hostile operations in this zone that fall short of an incitement to war. Ideally, is in the interest of the many governments and their various agencies to update such terms to better fit evolving national policy.
Obviously, most nations have laws against things like arson or assassination. As a result, law enforcement, along with domestic counterintelligence agencies, can go a long way towards stopping these activities.
The challenge to policymakers, then, is determining how to deal with these types of operations that are sponsored by foreign governments – regardless of whether the attempts fail or succeed.
For example, Iran plotted to assassinate Saudi ambassador to the United States, Adel al-Jubeir, in 2011. Iran’s plan was to attack the ambassador while he dined at a popular establishment, Café Milano, which he habitually frequented in Washington, DC. This restaurant often hosted members of Congress and a number of other officials and dignitaries.
Iran used an individual with dual U.S.-Iranian citizenship to hire members of a Mexican drug cartel to carry out the attack using explosives. Unbeknownst to this individual, however, the “cartel member” was a DEA informant. This informant passed along details of the plot to the U.S. government to prevent the assassination.
Had the attack succeeded, it would have resulted in a high number of casualties and most likely led to military conflict. U.S. law enforcement stopped the plot, but its disruption failed to dissuade Iran from numerous other assassination attempts on U.S. soil since this 2011 case.
Gray Zone Attacks Require More than Just the Efforts of Law Enforcement
Gray zone attacks require more than just law enforcement working domestically. Rather, they require a larger compliment of state power, such as:
- Diplomats to establish and convey red lines
- Economic sanctions or incentives
- Military and intelligence operations to demonstrate Washington’s resolve in protecting its interests
Hostile Nations Will Not Cease Their Attempts to Influence World Affairs
Russia’s conflict in Ukraine will not wind down anytime soon, nor will Iran cease its efforts to spread its influence throughout the Middle East. China will not stop trying to break out of the first island chain.
Gray zone operations play a significant role in pursuit of these efforts. That’s largely because Washington and its allies are still trying to find the best path for dealing with hostile acts that fall short of war.
One such way is to affirm that such attacks pose a risk to the offending parties. Different nations will respond quite differently, meaning the deterrence must be tailor-made. But the fear of escalation can never justify a paralytic response to a hostile act.
Addressing these gray zone attacks is the only way to prevent matters from escalating. Otherwise, hostile nations may presume Washington will simply not respond. As a result, preventing gray zone attacks must become a priority.
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