By James Hess, Ph.D.
Professor, School of Security and Global Studies
According to a U.S.-Taliban agreement, the U.S. agreed to withdraw its remaining 2,500 troops from Afghanistan by May 1, 2021. Also, the U.S. Secretary of State, Antony Blinken, sent a recent note to Afghanistan’s President, Ashraf Ghani, that the U.S. is considering pulling out by May 1.
Studies Have Shown That the Taliban Could Take Back Control of Afghanistan
Brookings Institute Fellow Madiha Afzal recently stated that the U.S.’s withdrawal could lead to the Taliban taking back considerable control in Afghanistan. This is a real concern as study after study for the better part of the last two decades demonstrates that the Taliban has targeted tribal elders.
The goal of this targeting of tribal elders is to replace them with people who are more sympathetic to the Taliban. Essentially, the Taliban is replacing its obstacles with people who better support the Taliban ideology.
How Can the Afghan Government Combat the Taliban’s Strategy for Creating Support?
There is no easy answer for how the Afghan government can combat the Taliban strategy of winning support from tribal leaders. With the U.S. and its coalition leaving — regardless if it is in May or a little later in the year — there are many parts of Afghanistan that will be vulnerable.
Kandahar province, for example, is the heart of where the Taliban began its movement. As the Carnegie Endowment study points out, Kandahar and Helmand are two areas that the Taliban have focused on.
Could There Be a Taliban Offensive Soon?
In Blinken’s note to Ghani, the U.S. is concerned about a potential Taliban offensive, especially one that would coincide with the Taliban’s annual spring offensive. If the U.S. withdraws in May, that would probably provide further impetus for the Taliban’s annual offensive. It typically starts in the spring as the weather warms, then ends in the late fall as the weather cools.
The U.S. would like to see the U.N. take the lead with “foreign ministers and envoys from Russia, China, Pakistan, Iran, India and the United States” trying to build a lasting peace in Afghanistan.
But the U.S. has been in Afghanistan for almost 20 years. While it is not to be expected that lasting peace will emerge, the U.S. should consider finding a strategy that will support the survival of the current Afghan government.
Unfortunately, the Afghan government has been slow to bring tribal elders into the role of governance. The Afghan government has many institutions in place to help with this transition, but this won’t be done without engagement with the tribal elders who have been targeted by the Taliban for years. The U.S.’s departure will most likely find that the Afghan government improves its support to the tribes, or the Taliban will.
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