By William Tucker
The Pentagon released a report today on the status of the conflict in Afghanistan. The report, entitled Report on Progress toward Security and Stability in Afghanistan, contained what would be expected in any military report; however there was one nugget in particular that caught my attention. In a section containing bullet points on the insurgency’s strengths and weaknesses one of the claimed weaknesses is an over-reliance on external support. Recently, a Taliban commander stated that the movement had received advanced training and supplies which accounted for the increased operational capacity of the insurgency. In a report released by the Pentagon earlier this month it was claimed that weapons seized from insurgents in Afghanistan contained Iranian markings and recent manufacture dates. Taken together the Taliban are claiming that Iranian support has allowed their insurgency to continue. If the report released today is to be believed, then it follows that the loss of Iranian support could seriously damage the Taliban.
In any counterinsurgency campaign the need to win the hearts and minds of the population is essential. However, this cannot be done without providing necessary staples of life such as shelter, sustenance, and security. The International force in Afghanistan is struggling to provide security in a large country with difficult terrain and a population spread throughout the countryside. The Taliban have capitalized on this by either intimidating tribal elders or assassinating them if they don’t acquiesce to Taliban demands. This has proven to be one of the most difficult obstacles for the ISAF to overcome. If the foreign support to the Taliban insurgency were to be damaged or disrupted the Taliban would have a difficult time sustaining operations.
This is where an offensive counterintelligence capability would become vital to fighting the Taliban insurgency – by targeting the intelligence agency or military component providing the support. Iran has several branches of the government that collect intelligence; however the Ministry of Information and Security and the IRGC – Qods Force are the two agencies involved in proxy support. Some time ago I posted on the defection of an Iranian nuclear scientist and because of other rumored defections it appeared as if Iran’s defensive counterintelligence operations were weak. I still believe this to be the case. According to reports, the U.S. has been able to identify individuals working out of the Iranian Embassy in Iraq that are intelligence operatives. Additionally, the understanding gained from fighting the intelligence war in Iraq has given many U.S. intelligence agents an understanding of Iranian operations in a region where Tehran is far more influential. This knowledge applied in Afghanistan, or used directly against MOIS and the IRGC-QF could help to change the balance of power in the Middle East which has been trending in Iran’s favor over the last couple of years.
Photo: U.S. Soldier handles copper explosively formed penetrator component of IED
Credit: AFP – Getty Images
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