By William Tucker
Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad won a controversial election in 2009 resulting in large protests in several major Iranian cities. The protests were eventually put down violently, primarily by the Basij militia, and over the last two years many of the protest leaders have been executed at Iran’s notorious Evin prison. With the current unrest in the Middle East, most notably in the Arab world, Iran would seem to be a natural contender as the next nation to experience such an uprising. To better understand the possibility of Iranian unrest we must first explore the popular political dynamic in the country.
Contemporary Iran has always had a strong undercurrent of liberal democratic support, but political pressure, both internal and external, have suppressed the movement at least over the last one hundred years. Perhaps the most poignant example of this is the coup d’état that ousted Iranian Prime Minister Mohammad Mosaddegh in 1953. The democratic movement was still present during the 1979 revolution that ousted Shah Reza Pahlavi, but due to its lack of coordination the movement towards democracy was replaced with the hardline Islamic government present today.
The 2009 protests were made up of Iranian youth who were disaffected with the current regime as opposed to the 1979 protests which had millions of people from all walks of like take to the streets against the Shah. Another aspect of the 2009 protests is the disconnect between the protesters and Mir Mousavi, the defacto leader of the Green Movement and Presidential challenger to Ahmadinejad. Mousavi, typically referred to as a reformer, wanted to change the Iranian regime from within, while the protesters have moved towards a more revolutionary stance. Some reports have stated that Mousavi has shifted his position as well; however as a politician, his shift could be interpreted as opportunistic.
It is against this backdrop that protesters have once again taken to the streets. Unlike 2009, these protests are small in number and the regime appears to be taking measures to ensure they don’t get out of hand. One such method is known as area denial. Using members of the Basij militia, the regime is prepositioning its assets to prevent the protesters from occupying large open areas within its major cities. This is what allowed protesters in Tunisia and Egypt to become entrenched and nearly impossible to eject from the area. Once protesters have taken over an area they can grow and become self sustaining. In response to these measures by the Iranian regime, protesters have called for a rooftop protest which is hardly effective at pressuring the regime. In other words, without a large mass of people in a given area a crisis doesn’t exist and rooftop protesters can simply be ignored.
In reality it is hard to characterize the Green movement as a movement at all. It lacks leadership and a cohesive message, not to mention any semblance of organization. Furthermore, using tools such as the Basij militia the regime is more than capable of preventing a mass gathering from gaining steam. All this being said there is a possibility of popular revolt, but it must come from within the security elements of the regime. What we must watch going forward is the sustained attempts to protest and if the security apparatus continues to follow orders – especially when they are ordered to use violence against unarmed demonstrators. For a security official it is one thing to break up a protest, but another entirely to fire on an unarmed fellow countryman. The protests in Iran have begun, but it is still early and we’ll have to watch developments closely.
Photo: Associated Press
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