AMU Homeland Security Opinion

Rethinking What’s Next for Libya

By William Tucker
libya_tripoli_624map_1.jpgBy now it is clear that Moammar Gaddafi’s reign in Libya is over. All major tribes that had once proclaimed their loyalty to the Gaddafi regime have rescinded their endorsement and some members of Gaddafi’s own tribe have disowned him. The speculation now is that Libya will descend into a civil war akin to Somalia and become a haven for militant jihadist groups. Indeed, many foreign fighters that the U.S. faced in Iraq had come from Libya, but whether this was due to Tripoli’s crackdown on the militants or support of their effort in Iraq is unclear. In the past few days new groups with proclaimed Islamist or Jihadist leanings have cropped up in Libya – particularly the eastern half of the country. While this is alarming to many observers and those with a stake in Libya’s future, it is still to early to write of stability in the country.


I, like many in the past few days, have given a lot of thought to what a civil war in Libya might look like. It would seem that without a strong central government in Tripoli that the numerous tribes in Libya would turn on each other in an attempt to take control of the country. Recently, I’ve given thought to another possibility, namely one in which a tribal council reorganizes out of the ashes of the Gaddafi regime and institutes a temporary governing council. This not as much of a long shot as it would seem. When Gaddafi took power he instituted several government councils that allowed for the different tribes to be represented throughout the government. This served to appease the tribes and buy their loyalty while simultaneously preventing any bureaucracy, or even the military for that matter, from becoming powerful enough to challenge his rule.
As protesters began their revolt against Gaddafi’s rule it was widely expected that the country would face a split along east – west lines. Not only has this not yet happened, but the revolutionary councils have not turned on one another. In fact, they have simply turned on Gaddafi and his die hard loyalists. Furthermore, areas in the east that first came under opposition control, namely the city of Benghazi, have not seen continuing levels of violence or unrest. Recent news reports coming from the east indicate that the tribal leaders have their people under control and the weapons that were seized from government forces are being returned to local police. This is hardly the behavior of competing tribes looking to take advantage of a collapsing central government.
While it is possible that the cooperation of the people with their tribal leaders may not last, what gave me pause and forced me to reassess the situation was the demographics and economics of Libya. The north African nation of Libya may be large geographically, but it population is rather small – a mere 6.4 million. Compare that with the oil based economy that is underdeveloped and you get a large land mass with untapped potential. A massive unemployment rate further exacerbates the situation. Because the population just isn’t large enough to exploit the full potential of the oil fields libya has been forced to allow foreign oil companies to explore, drill, and move the oil product to market. Because of Gaddafi’s constant anti-western stance this has progressed as well as it could which kept local unemployment high, thus providing one of the leading causes of the current unrest.
Judging by the behavior of the tribes and their people after the expulsion of Gaddafi’s forces from the east it appears as if the tribal leaders understand this. If the violent security situation were to persist the oil companies couldn’t develop the oil fields meaning the Libyan economy would collapse. This dynamic of demographics and economics would exist regardless of what government took shape in Libya. Should a Jihadist government take power they would still need to sell oil to the nearest market capable of purchasing the product – i.e. Europe. Jihadists taking advantage of the situation is still a possibility, but the tribes appear to be better organized and don’t appear to be willing to give up power to another despot.
The latest word out of Libya indicates that a large battle is underway in Tripoli. It is unclear who the reported pro-government forces are as there have been reports of foreign mercenaries operating at Gaddafi’s behest. If this is the case then the it is unlikely that Gaddafi could regain control of the country. As previously mentioned, most of the major tribes have pulled their support for Gaddafi and it is unlikely he could effectively rule the country without domestic support. I am fairly certain that this is the end of Gaddafi’s rule, but regardless of who takes power next they will inherit Libya’s existing problems. In order to prevent chaos springing from food shortages rather than unemployment security must be returned soon. This means Gaddafi would have to go sooner rather than later.

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