AMU Europe Homeland Security Intelligence Opinion

Responding to Russia’s Volunteers on Leave

By Brett Daniel Shehadey
Special Contributor for In Homeland Security

Russian troops have officially been described as ‘volunteers’ on their summer leave that just happen to be taking their state’s tanks and other military hardware into Ukraine’s Civil War. They are not taking any direct orders from Moscow, so the story goes.

Should NATO troops also go on ‘holiday’ in Ukraine then?

The West must decide if it is willing to play for checkmate, a draw or resign from the Ukrainian battle chess match altogether:

1. Step Back/Resign—keep watching the conflict escalate, making condemnations, work only on a political level but taking no more actions against Russia. This results in greater loss of eastern portions of Ukraine but with a possible political solution and accommodation with Europe, Ukraine and Russia. A lose some to save some strategy. Keep Kiev and lose the east.

2. No Win Strategy/Play for Draw—making more political accusations, passing more economic sanctions and bracing for more economic reprisals from Moscow, and limited further actions like military aid. Much of the same course taken so far. Soft escalation. Results in splitting Ukraine between Europe and Russia politically and territorially. A win-lose divide strategy.

3. NATO on Holiday/Checkmate Play—go all in, send hundreds of thousands of NATO troops all around Ukraine, supply Kiev with infinite arms and better capabilities to counter Russia, send in NATO ‘volunteers’ and play Russia’s game; increase economic sanctions, draw clear political red-lines that allow Europe and Russia to use Ukraine as an unofficial battlefield but not enter larger forces, etc. (results in destroying Russian economy, damages EU economy, checks Russian military power with clear resolution that Russia cannot have Ukraine. Problematic in that it heightens recent and present concerns about NATO eastern expansion and a Ukrainian alliance. High risk but possible high reward—could lead Russia to the negotiating table in sincerity. A take all strategy.

Short of the third course of action is an expressed intention without action. For example, the old leak plans trick concerning the ‘NATO holiday’ comes up from NATO HQ before an official threat is made in order to test Russian military response.

Any and all efforts must make extremely clear that the key objective only involves the repulsion of Russian aggression and not the unleashing of more Ukrainian nationalism or the green-light for political reprisals from Kiev. So far, the West has done a poor job at this but has done better at holding back Kiev extremism until now. Additionally, there must be assurances of benign treatment of ethnic Russians and political safeguards, Western humanitarian support in conflict areas, resettlement and reconstruction programs and refugee aid; the sealing of the border as well as a post-conflict referendum by third party international monitors. German Chancellor Angela Merkel pledged 500 million Euros to refugee aid and reconstruction but more must be offered and actions speak louder than pledges. Humanitarianism addressing over 400,000 internally displaced peoples and refugees would be a realistic start at any political dialogue.

At this point, whatever course of action the West decides, it certainly could make the situation worse. Yet the crisis has the appearance of worsening already without a Western hammer play. Kiev is pushing harder against Russia and their separatist subversion in the east and Russia is pushing back harder in response. Yesterday, Moscow informed its unruly neighbor that it will continue to press harder until Kiev realizes that no military option will bring about any victory. Russia will continue to play for draw with Ukraine. It cannot expect a checkmate of Ukraine. They hope to gain some territory initially in the east, bring Kiev to the table on their terms and plan for a long war of espionage and political influence down the road, in order to wrest all traces of Westernism from the land over time. The alternative will be along bloody conflict in which Russia will make sure Ukraine suffers the most while protecting strategic breathing room.

Russia is not about to enter too deep into Ukraine territory, with over 15 million Kiev nationalist hostiles between the Russian-Ukrainian border to the Dnieper River. They will take what they can on friendly terrain, supply and reinforce them ethnic Russians closest to their border, as they have demonstrated, in response to what they perceive as a Kiev and Western assault taking place right now.

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