AMU Europe Homeland Security Intelligence Opinion

Putin’s Seven-Point Plan to Settle Differences in Ukraine

By Brett Daniel Shehadey
Special Contributor for In Homeland Security

Russian President Vladimir Putin said on Wednesday that he had reached an agreement with Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko to permanently end the conflict that has forced the exodus of more than one million refugees, according to the UN. The proposal, a seven-point plan, is awaiting finalization.

Although the accounts of the agreement differed, both leaders have expressed that some middle ground was found. Each side is taking credit for the victory. This is a good thing. It means that neither side wished to continue the conflict. It is uncertain who wins or loses.

Putin communicated what his terms were: Militants must end operations in Donetsk and Luhansk regions and Ukrainian armed forces must pull out of artillery range. Any final agreement must also include the presence of an impartial international monitor of the ceasefire process. Humanitarian corridors should be established for aid and refugee resettlement; a prisoner exchange and reconstruction projects.

Effectively, Russia wants to maintain its hold on Eastern Ukraine without Kiev interference in exchange for ending the secession movements. They have also mentioned that they want a united Ukraine, which would give them a political corridor and beachfront into the nation of Ukraine.

Or quite possible this is a Russian ruse—Ukraine forces withdrawal from firing range and Russia reinforces the separatists in a massive humanitarian Blitzkrieg. But then why did Poroshenko agree to the deal or was it another deal on the phone?

Naturally, Russia still denies military or subversive involvement but promises the ability to coordinate with the players that are involved. The separatists ignored a call for truce earlier in June, but the situation has worsened for Russia. They have showed more of their hand than they initially wanted too. Their economy is teetering the brink of a recession with less than one percent growth. There is also the NATO bolstering its forces with a rapid response force and voluminous talk of supplying Ukraine with arms and the talk of joining.

Moscow seeks a ‘hold on to Eastern Ukraine strategy’ that does not require military violence if an agreement can be made with their objectives met. It does not want economic or military conflict, just political and security access in parts of Ukraine. As for the pro-Russian separatists fighting in Ukraine, they are largely orchestrated by Moscow and a lack of support would see them all hanged. They would also receive assurances from Moscow of protection against ethno-nationalist aggression.

At the other end of the conflict, President Poroshenko says that it was ‘his’ phone call with Putin that turned the tide. He retracted his statement that they had reached agreement, so things might be falling apart already. Perhaps there are some hidden elements hanging on the balance of this agreement that have not yet been disclosed.

The talks to settle the agreement by both Putin and Poroshnko are scheduled for Friday in Belarus.

“There’s an opportunity here — let’s see if there’s follow-up,” President Barrack Obama said. “No realistic political settlement can be achieved if effectively Russia says we are going to continue to send troops and arms and advisers.”

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