By Brett Daniel Shehadey
Special Contributor for In Homeland Security
The White House gave a press release describing Russian President Vladimir Putin reaching out and taking the initiative to call President Obama after the annexation of Crimea and global outrage building up against him and his country.
President Obama wants Putin to pull back troops and have them stand down on the Eastern Ukrainian border. Russian military there are reported to now number around 50,000 by some accounts.
This is a sign of good will and cooperation and an assurance that Russia will is not planning on invading or seizing other parts of Ukraine or possibly Transnistria. At this point it is unsure what his intentions are but it appears that this mobilization gives Russia more options than they should have. They are in a position to seize all of Ukraine if they choose.
On his part, Russia’s President urged again the need to protect his people but offered a diplomatic path if Washington could work with the international community and Russia on this matter. Russia is concerned that its interests in Ukraine are still under attack. In fact, so long as a pro-European government exists in Kiev, Russia has had to fight to retain or regain what was lost. It got even more back in Crimea. It still has the heavily populated Russian areas in the East of Ukraine to worry about and the natural gas facilities, for example.
Putin’s offer is that the concerns of the extremists be taken seriously. He obviously knows there is a scheduled election to replace the present interim government leadership of Ukraine in May—very soon. Already potential leaders have been on campaign; including the recently released from prison and former prime minister, Yulia V. Tymoshenko.
The Right Sector is a nationalist political faction of Ukraine whose members are activists and initiatve violence to achieve objectives as well. They were pivitol in the riots and ouster of former President Viktor Yanukovich. Naturally, they are the enemy to Russia then and this is the prime group entering Putin’s mind as he spoke with President Obama. It is not true that they are fascist or neo-Nazi, however, as they are not racists. The right Sector do pose a potential threat to stability as they threaten the interim Prime Minister and government. Additionally, so many groups are riddled with rampant corruption that is foolish to seek a ‘good-guy” or at least “purist” that the West could support. The game is one of spheres of influence, not backing the moral hero. Yanukovich was just as bad or worse but to the Russians, he was their man in Kiev.
As from the beginning, Russia wants a greater say in Kiev that they lost during the end of the Winter Olympics. They seem willing to take a partial share of influence that the West was completely unwilling to give them even just before the military escalation and occupation of Crimea. The difference now is that Putin is reaching out with this latest phone call.
Russia must go off the radar and halt all conventional military build-up. They must first demonstrate that they are shutting down their forces. This must be visible before diplomatic agreements can be sincerely made. Russia needs to be the one to reestablish trust after enlarging its state by annexing another. The question is: will they put away national pride and their own domestic rallies that tell the West to shove it?
Washington must now continue its political pressure against Russia in-line with the UN and international community consensus. The West must inform Russia that positive relations with the international community will not recover for at least a decade if it seizes or occupies the state of Ukraine; and thus ensure long-term consequences and isolation will reach a level that makes actions impalpable. Moreover, Washington and Brussels should tell Moscow that if they make any more moves, in addition to more political and economic isolation, they will the missile defense shield and the militarization of Europe on its borders as the next step response.
Additionally, the carrot must offer some small concessions to Russia to ensure protections on ethnic Russians and Russian security and energy interests; as well as democracy and human rights in the upcoming vote. The West should demand human rights monitors in Russia’s Crimea too- as they are being persecuted politically now under the Russian flag; and the protection of non-Russians in the rest of Ukraine is also a must.
It is not in Russia’s interest to gain Ukraine through violence and its own domestic politics and lose access to the greater world, as it is doing now and realizes it.
The phone call is a positive sign. Losing Russia means little to the West. Losing the world should mean a heck of a lot more to Russia.
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