By Brett Daniel Shehadey
Special Contributor for In Homeland Security
The Ukrainian government continues to press its luck in denying any and all Russian influence in eastern Ukraine. It has made a number of substantial military gains in the east but not without deeper political consequences in the eastern region. Its recent shelling of Donetsk is the most perilous offensive yet to retake territory seized by pro-Russian separatists.
Ukrainian military operations have displayed two basic characteristics: 1) bombard the city with heavy airstrikes and artillery, or 2) go in on with a ground assault using conventional and unconventional troops and limited or no heavy strikes.
The first tactic destroys massive parts of the city and collateral damage but can have the fastest results of expelling the enemy force. This was used to win Slovyansk, for example. The problem is the aftermath of a ruined city and the political consequences of an occupation status military that now appears worse than the previous one. Slovyansk civilians, the ones that did not vacate and become refugees end up picking up the rubble of war.
The Ukrainian reaction was a celebratory victory without recognition of the consequences in achieving victory: “The terrorists are losing, surrendering,” Interior Minister Arsen Avakov wrote on Facebook.
The pro-Russian separatist leader Andrei Purgin, who shares ethnic ties to a majority in Slovyansk said: “Ukrainian forces were trying to level Slovyansk to the ground. What would you do, if you were being thrashed by mortars, artillery weapons, being bombed from the air — and you had three tanks and machine guns?”
Russia has labeled these murderous attacks and refused to return seized Ukrainian weaponry from Crimea until there was peace between Kiev and the separatists. The Ukrainian government is considered to be neo-Nazis by the Russian officials and their media.
The Ukrainians have used unconventional and conventional ground assaults and limited or no heavy artillery and airpower. This would be preferred as they risk a drawn out conflict with a risk of decreasing justification and increased Russian commitment.
Along with the sacking of Slovyansk, Kiev raised the national flags in a string of cities last week. Kramatorsk, Artemivsk and Druzhkivka were tactical victories or tactical retreats depending on the side telling the story. Each side blames the other for the more than 1,000 civilian casualties.
Unfortunately, in Donestsk they are already using bombardment tactics. This will be entirely different from Slovyansk. Separatists paramilitary forces number in the thousands (8,000-10,000) and they are embedded in the civilian populace of a city of 1 million (not 100,000). Here, they face a superior force of 30,000 Ukrainian troops with more firepower. Aside from the damage and collateral damage expected in Donestsk is the proximity to the Russian border.
Retributive attacks, in which Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko vows to kill one hundred separatist “terrorists” for every Ukrainian soldier’s death, will lead to the type of overreaction scenario that plays into Russia’s favor.
Kiev is tired of playing the nice guy, despite recovering their state from Moscow’s political control. No more cease-fires or talks. Poroshenko seems to be ignoring Germany’s call for restraint. In losing their patience and calm, they may lose their edge. Kiev wants all of Ukraine yesterday. An irrational emotional drive is affecting their military options and planning. They are not nearly as concerned with winning hearts and minds as they should be. They have limited post-construction plans and local political and policing contingencies when cities fall.
Although the Russian Parliament just recently revoked the ability of the president to use military force in Ukraine, a right that was authorized earlier in the seizure of Crimea, Russia warns Kiev of possible “irreversible consequences” after a Russian citizen on the Russian side of the border was killed by stray rocket. Additionally, Russia vows a “tough response” as Ukraine steps up heavy attacks on Donetsk and rockets fly near and over the border. Moscow will likely be forced to supply a substantial stock of arms and assistance to prevent more refugees, Russian deaths and keep Kiev out of the self-declared eastern republics of Ukraine without a large signature.
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