By Brett Daniel Shehadey
Special Contributor for In Homeland Security
Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko’s government offered the pro-Russian separatists a ceasefire on Friday that was scheduled to end on June 27. He has also offered his awaited peace plan amidst a new Russia military build-up along the border, a continued armed conflict between Ukrainian security forces and militant separatists; refugees heading into Russia, as well as one incident of mortar fire crossing the Ukraine-Russia border.
President Poroshenko’s peace plan depends on the separatists accepting his offer of amnesty for those not involved in killing civilians or military personnel, safe passage to across the border and most importantly, greater autonomy in the now self-proclaimed republics of Luhansk and Donetsk.
Russian President Vladimir Putin has endorsed much of the peace plan but wants a sure victory and or a graceful exit without loss. He has been in contact on and off with Putin and the Russian embassy has reopened in Kiev.
Poroshenko’s plan of peace lacks assurances. Neither the Russians nor the separatists trust Kiev or the new president. The plan also forces the separatists to lay down their arms and if leaving the country, first abandon their arms. Instead, Poroshenko should allow them to take their weapons into Russia. Secondly, the plan offers amnesty for those that have not killed but how is this provable and how easily could this be used against any separatists by the nationalists?
The lack of allowing an enemy to retreat in arms or given amnesty for past aggression may be essential to ending this conflict. Both conditions could have a lifespan as well. The present situation lacks good-faith in the eyes of the separatists and Moscow, but has potential. They have held out for a better deal while the conflict worsened from both sides.
Nevertheless, this offer seems as far as Poroshenko is willing to go. He has his own domestic rally pushing him further towards a stick approach. Of peace fails, Poroshenko has promised for what he calls, “Plan B.” This is where he vows to eliminate the militant separatists without mercy. The fighting continues despite the cease-fire. Each side is blaming the other for violating the truce.
Unfortunately, all sides, including Russia, seem to be playacting the negotiated political process and militarily outmaneuvering the other. As soon as one pledges support to the peace process, the other thinks they see an opportunity around it. What will happen at this point remains unclear. Putin wants more than a peace plan, he wants the separatists to have an “integral” part in Ukraine and voice in Kiev.Likely the process will continue until the negotiating table can offer Putin and his proxy enough political access.
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