By James Hess, Ph.D.
Faculty Director and Associate Professor of Intelligence Studies at American Military University
As Iraqi military forces continue their advance toward liberating Mosul from ISIL, there are reports that ISIL initiated a toxic fire, setting ablaze a sulphur plant and killing two Iraqis. ISIL has also used civilians as human shields and massacred hundreds of people.
As appalling as these tactics are, they aren’t surprising. ISIL will probably intensify these tactics if Iraqi forces maintain their offensive into Mosul.
What Will Happen to Mosul if Iraqi Forces Are Successful?
If Iraqi forces successfully liberate Mosul, ISIL forces will regroup within Syria. If Mosul falls, the city of Raqqa will be the last remaining stronghold of ISIL forces.
If Iraqi forces engage ISIL in house-to-house fighting, ISIL fighters may attempt an exodus. These fighters would have to navigate a 450-kilometer trek (about 280 miles) along the southern border of Turkey.
Turkey Well Positioned to Engage ISIL Fighters
Turkey has participated in the fight against ISIL and in the planned liberation of Mosul. To date, the Iraqi government has said “no” to Turkish involvement over Mosul.
However, Turkey could play a vital role in the conflict between ISIL and Iraq. Turkey could use its mobilized forces to watch for ISIL fighters that attempt to flee toward Syria. Given the region’s geography, Turkey would be well situated to observe and potentially engage retreating ISIL forces.
If ISIL fighters, which are estimated at around 6,000 soldiers in Mosul, are able to escape, they could significantly bolster ISIL numbers in Syria. AS ISIL loses ground in Syria, the addition of a few thousand fighters could provide a renewed effort for ISIL.
More Rhetoric to Come from ISIL
During the upcoming battle of Mosul, Western countries should be prepared for increased ideological rhetoric from ISIL. Its message will most likely focus on recruiting using an argument that Iraqi, Turkish and Syrian forces are serving Western masters. This recruiting tactic can be identified through the use of the term “jahiliyyah”, which means “ignorance” and refers to pagan religious believers.
ISIL uses this term to condemn Muslim governments. As ISIL continues to lose ground, the group’s rhetoric will intensify in an attempt to spark further tensions in the Middle East.
About the Author
Dr. James Hess received his Ph.D. from Louisiana State University, where he studied improving analytical methodologies in counterinsurgency and counter-terrorism environments. He is currently studying the relationship between Islamic jurisprudence and terrorism as an International Relations Research Fellow with the University of Arizona’s Center for Middle Eastern Studies.
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