Brett Daniel Shehadey
Special Contributor for In Homeland Security
In Libya, Russia evacuated staff last Thursday after a coordinated Islamic mob/militia attack on their Tripoli embassy. The militants stormed the compound at a time when security was at one of its lowest; climbed over walls, broke down the gate, stole computers and equipment.
Two assailants were reported shot and killed in an exchange of fire by security. No Russian Embassy personnel were reported injured. The motives for the attack have been chalked down to the brutal murder of a Libyan air force officer by a Russian Woman. This might have been the rally point opportunity but did it really spark the overthrow of the compound all by itself? Russia Today, a televised mouth-piece for the Russian Federation stated that the attacks were the result of lawlessness since Colonel Gaddafi’s fall- this is in line with their efforts to prevent Western interaction in Syria and conduct another no-fly zone over its protectorate state.
The Libyan government could only apologize for their actions and the lack of protection. Not only instability of Libya is a concern- as Russia remains one of less than ten states that remain in-country. In 2012, the Russian embassy was also attacked by angry demonstrators for siding opposing a UN Security Council Resolution that would condemn Syrian President Bashar al Assad for violating the rules of war and massacring civilians since March 2011.
This the real problem for Russia- a growing tension between violent Islamists and Russia’s negative image in helping Syria. The Russian diplomatic mission in Syria and Libya also sets back all of its missions within Muslim states- as they slowly recognize the Bear’s weakness and follow it back to its den over the next decade.
At home, in the North Caucuses, Moscow continues to face separatists from a highly Muslim region. Moreover, the largest threats stem from low-intensity insurgency and the more desperate acts of terrorism by extremists. As Russia prepares to receive the 2014 Winter Olympics in the Black Sea city of Sochi, the Federal Security Service is attempting to avoid running “concentration camp” measures on the minority Sunni Muslim population. “The city won’t become a concentration camp,” said FSB official Alexei Lavrishchev. But fear is in the air.
This statement was in the midst of terror threats in July, when Chechen terrorist leader Doku Umarov urged Muslim extremists to target the Winter Games (February 7-27). Umarov has claimed responsibility or suspected of various large-scale suicide bombings within Russia, including: the Domodedovo International Airport, the Moscow Metro and the Nevesky Express. He has multiple times stated to limit the violence against civilians and target only Russian military and security but has violated his own principles on multiple accounts. The latest instigation of terror at the Olympic Games is another violation as he redefines the definition of what a civilian is. He is suspected of having ties with al Qaeda and the Taliban by the UN; remains the most wanted man in Russia, and the US government has $5 million dollars for his capture. In short, he is proposing to attack a sacred Western symbol in Russia and is likely capable in leading jihadists to do so.
Islamic fundamentalists hold a deep hatred for Russia. Bottom line: the possibility of international terrorism being shifting from Western shores and exported more to Russia than to the United States is growing. This can clearly be seen by evidence of the Libya Embassy attack, Syrian intervention, and the Winter Olympics. Meanwhile the US is playing a more silent international role in Muslim dominated states. In recent months, this change has allowed for Russia to take the international stage as the world’s jihadists number one enemy.
Jihadists in Syria are flocking in from ever where to fight Russia too- even from Western states and Russian Chechnya and Dagestan, to join the fight against Putin and Assad. What has been called “Putin’s Vietnam” or compared to as Russia’s next Afghanistan in the face of growing Islamic insurgency is no longer something to be ignored. As a ceasefire between Assad’s regime and the “rebels” becomes more unattainable and Islamic fighters are able to hold position and even make gains, Russia will become a greater target in proportion to its involvement. The Olympics in Russia will be a serious matter of concern and a difficult one to defend.
Russia needs help and they do not even realize the half of it yet. They will be the last to ask for it in the open air but under the table talks on security lines will assure greater gains for Western and Russian relations, security and a renewed Western led human rights campaign within Russia. The latter needing persistent and gradual advances to acculturate greater free speech, free association and rule of law.
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