By William Tucker
After several days of protests, much of which turned violent after government forces opened fire on the gathering, the Libyan city of Benghazi has fallen to those opposed to the 40 year rule of Moammar Gaddafi. Information coming out of the North African country has been difficult to ascertain as media freedom is strictly limited and both pro-government and opposition forces have a stake in pushing their propaganda. Thus far, however, both the opposition and the government have stated that Benghazi is under opposition control and the fighting has spread to Tripoli.
In any autocratic regime the stability of the government rests upon the loyalty of the security forces. In Libya’s case Gaddafi had structured the military in such a way that it had multiple components that were competent, and yet, could never become strong enough to challenge his rule. In the past this has worked to Gaddafi’s advantage in targeting coordinated opposition, but in this most recent case the security forces have not coalesced into an effective force to protect the regime. Much of this is due to the underlying problems in Libyan society that have allowed the security apparatus to fracture allowing the opposition to exploit the fissure.
Gaddafi still does have forces that are loyal to him, but they may not be enough to reestablish his writ across the country. If recent reports of the defections of high level officials in the military and police are accurate, then it would follow that Gaddafi’s time will come to an end in the near future. But if Gaddafi is able to rally some support from the southern reaches of the country he may be able to push the country into a civil war. For now the security situation is fluid and it is apparent that the government has lost control over much of the country. Regardless of what happens, Gaddafi’s rule will not be the same.
Photo from Benghazi, Libya. Associated Press
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