By William Tucker
Iraqi Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki announced earlier today the elimination of the two top leaders of the al-Qaeda movement in Iraq. They were Abu Ayyub al-Masri, leader of al-Qaeda in Iraq, and Abu Omar al-Baghdadi, head of the Islamic State of Iraq. During the U.S. surge both men, primarily al-Masri, were able to launch attacks and survive the constant hounding by U.S. Special Forces. According to news reports both men were killed in the same safe house in Thar Thar region of Anbar province. According to the Long War Journal an additional 16 individuals were arrested following yesterday’s raid.
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While this is significant news it does not mean the end of violence in Iraq. In the last few years al-Qaeda’s presence has rapidly diminished as foreign fighters fled Iraq for other battlefields in South Asia and Africa, thus leading to a decline in violence. According to the Iraqi government much of the violence that persists in Iraq today is still linked in some ways to al-Qaeda; however the validity of those claims are often in question. In the coming months we will be able to gauge the impact this lose of these two leaders will have on al-Qaeda by whether an increase or decrease in violence occurs. If a new leader emerges it is highly likely that an uptick in violence will occur as the new guy looks to assert his authority. If, on the other hand, violence follows a downward trend then it is possible that al-Qaeda has been severely damaged.
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